Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

March 5, 2012

That's $1,000 for you and $2,000 for you and....

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Brett Beach: I think pent up demand for a high-quality pedigreed animated/family/kids film was there. Coming from the Dr. Seuss name and the director of Despicable Me, the studio helped create this. I feel like a great job was done promoting this, from the product tie-ins to the voice talent (esp Swift and Efron) selling this on the talk shows. Still, this is an astounding figure, and Saturday uptick, even with 3D figured into it.

Max Braden: That's big, bigger than I expected. I think they succeeded at least in advertising; that orange mustache was *everywhere*. Those little creatures make me think of the minions in Despicable Me, which also appeared everywhere before it opened to only $56 million in height of summer in 2010. I don't think I can say "if you release it, they will come," but combined with the huge Valentine's Day weekend, it seems like there's a lot of pent up box office money out there waiting to be spent.

Kim Hollis: I mentioned to David Mumpower a few weeks ago that as soon as we had a legitimate family film (something that is truly appropriate for all ages, that is), that it had the potential to explode. We've gone months without a real kiddie option, even with Journey 2 in theaters (I don't know that it's appropriate for all kids, really). Lorax was that film to strike a chord, allowing parents to finally take their little ones to a theater thanks to a trusted brand. Yes, I'm calling Dr. Seuss a brand, but I think it's appropriate here. I agree that the scope of the film's success is surprising, but that kids wanted to see it is not.




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The answer to this question might make you sad.

Kim Hollis: Your best guess: does Pixar's upcoming Brave open better than The Lorax? Why or why not?

Tom Houseman: I would be surprised if Brave broke $70 million. For one, it has a female protagonist, which means it might not be able to hook the young boys the way that previous Pixar films did. Also, it will be coming on the heels of Snow White and the Hunstman and Madagascar 3 (when did Madagascar 2 exist?). The Lorax took advantage of a dearth of quality family entertainment, and Brave will not have that luxury. Pixar's non-sequels opens between $60 and $70 mil, although a few fall below that mark. I expect Brave to open between $50 and $60 mil, because, as we all know, girls are gross.

Tim Briody: Remove Toy Story 3 and the top Pixar opening is $70 million, which both Finding Nemo and The Incredibles reached. Pixar releases have a pretty established wheelhouse at this point and it's an obvious statement to say that while Brave will do very well, I don't think it tops The Lorax's opening weekend.

Reagen Sulewski: I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. Right now it kind of plays a bit like The Hunger Games meets The Lord of the Rings, and if you think those comparisons hurt it when combined with Pixar's track record (Cars aside), you don't know moviegoers. It's true that Pixar doesn't usually make the kind of film that's aiming for the biggest opening weekends, but if you look back at their earlier films, they often weren't sold all that well. Some of the Toy Story trailers were horrible, for instance. But Brave is already out of the gate with a great little featurette. I think they're back on their game and feeling their oats. The summer release date does not hurt that at all, either.


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