Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

February 13, 2012

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Edwin Davies: This is a pretty much perfect example of a movie that could only be opened right before Valentine's Day. Any other time of the year, a poorly-reviewed romantic drama starring Channing Tatum would probably struggle to open to half of what The Vow did. But throw it out there right before the most sappy and mawkish holiday of the year and you've got a hit on your hands. By the same token, it's going to be so tied to the time of the year that I think it is going to have a pretty bad final multiplier, and once Valentine's is in the rear-view mirror, it'll struggle to get to $90 million, but considering that it had already made its money back by Sunday, that hardly matters. This is a pretty stellar piece of scheduling.

Reagen Sulewski: While I started off with the idea that it didn't matter that it was specifically McAdams and Tatum in this film, only that it was a romance on or around Valentine's Day, I'll back off that a tad and say that they certainly helped. I still maintain that this is a product of the calendar more than anything. That certainly won't stop either camp's agents from using this in their next salary negotiation. As far as the movie itself, it might as well be made of catnip - 2013's Valentine's Day weekend is already booked for "The Man Who Loves You Even Though You Put On 20 Pounds".


Tim Briody: Remember, Dear John is the answer to the trivia question of which film took Avatar's place at the top of the box office, and it did $30.4 million two years ago. It might have made more if its opening weekend wasn't over the Super Bowl. The Vow's performance as nothing other than a chick flick in a good weekend for them is pretty self-explanatory. However, I offer no explanation to the appeal of Channing Tatum, who has quietly had a pretty solid box office career.

David Mumpower: My current theorem is that Channing Tatum is to women what Angelina Jolie has been to men. Everyone knows he's an empty vessel but that doesn't make the vessel any less attractive. Jolie is every bit as scary and intimidating as she is hot. People should know better on both of them but we all have our blind spots. I would like to give more credit to Rachel McAdams for this, but her track record for opening weekends is spotty at best. Her appeal seems to be the lengthened stay of these titles in theaters, which is why State of Play and Morning Glory are her only two lead performances that have earned under $40 million. She's remarkably consistent, just not at the start of a movie's run. Tatum on the other hand is a fah-reak. He's carried a pair of Step Up films to shockingly large debuts, he somehow leveled up the otherwise forgettable Fighting to double digits, we have discussed Dear John already and the G.I. Joe performance is mind boggling relative to the quality of the title. Channing Tatum is a box office opener just as Angelina Jolie has been. We do not have the right meritocracy when we select our stars. With regards to what The Vow has accomplished, this is the equivalent of a 60 home run season. A movie with a $30 million production budget shouldn't earn $41.2 million on opening weekend. Better yet, The Vow is the type of movie that will run forever and clean up on home video. 2012 is only a few weeks old yet we have already borne witness to one of the most profitable projects of the entire year.

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