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Weekend Forecast for January 27-29, 2012

By Reagen Sulewski

January 27, 2012

You do *not* want to mess with Taken.

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Lastly, we have Man on a Ledge, Summit Entertainment's latest attempt to be relevant in its soon-to-be Twilight-less future. Sam Worthington stars as the titular character, an ex-con who is actually serving as the distraction to a diamond heist that has something to do with proving his innocence. While Elizabeth Banks is trying to talk Worthington “down,” Jamie Bell and something named Genesis Rodriguez are nearby making the heist of the century, or something. This movie has more plot than five movies.

While not quite as restricted to one location as its spiritual predecessor Phone Booth, it's firmly within the high-concept genre, which at least gets it some attention. Reviewers have been less than kind to it, and although Worthington has racked up some extremely impressive opening weekends over the last two years, this is not going to be one of them. Give it $12 million for its debut.

With several Oscar nominated films expanding, this throws the lower half of the charts into a bit of flux. The biggest overall expansion is The Descendants, the Alexander Payne/George Clooney film about loss and betrayal in Hawaii. This is actually the film's tenth weekend, but it had never gotten higher than 878 screens until now. That hasn't stopped it from bringing in over $50 million so far, which is a great under-the-radar figure. It's a little unusual for a film to just be getting its wide release after this length of time and after earning this much money, so there are very few benchmarks for how it's going to behave. The film that actually comes most to mind is American Beauty, although that was much more in the way of a re-release than an expansion, coming as it did five months after its initial opening. Another possible comparison is Slumdog Millionaire, though The Descendants doesn't come in with nearly the buzz of that film. On close to 2,000 screens, I'd say we're looking for around $6 million here, based on past performances.




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Other films that ought to see some boosts thanks to Oscar nominations are The Artist, aka, the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture. So far it's brought in $12 million, and had its biggest expansion last weekend to 662 screens. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hugo and War Horse are the only other Best Picture nominees still in significant numbers of theaters, while Albert Nobbs, The Iron Lady and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy may see some bumps for their acting nominations. You can see how quickly the field fills up here, and there's clearly not room for all.

Especially considering that we still have some significant films returning. Underworld Awakening won't be anyone's idea of a leggy film, but with a $25 million start, even its big drop-off will be relatively a lot of money this weekend. None of these films has managed better than a 45% holdover, so $10 million seems about right here.

Red Tails, the Tuskeegee Airmen movie, looks to fall by close to the same margin, though the George Lucas-produced film is already ahead of the game by starting at almost $19 million. It should find about $9 million this weekend.

The aforementioned Extremely Loud surprised many by taking a Best Picture slot, and with audiences generally liking it, it may be able to turn that nomination into some legs. After a disappointing $10 million start, it should follow that up with an $8 million second weekend.


Forecast: Weekend of January 27-29, 2012
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 The Grey 3,185 New 18.9
2 One For the Money 2,737 New 13.3
3 Man on a Ledge 2,998 New 11.7
4 Underworld: Awakening N/A N/A 10.4
5 Red Tails N/A N/A 9.7
6 Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close N/A N/A 8.6
7 The Descendants 1,995 +1,435 6.5
8 Contraband N/A N/A 6.0
9 Beauty and the Beast 3D N/A N/A 4.4
10 The Iron Lady N/A N/A 3.2

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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