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The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Guild Nominations: PGA Best Picture, DGA Best Director, WGA Best Adapted Screenplay, ASC Best Cinematography, ACE Best Editing-Drama, ADG Best Art Direction-Contemporary, CDG Best Costumes-Contemporary

Why it Might Get Nominated: Because there is clearly a lot of respect for this film. David Fincher is one of the most respected filmmakers working today, and he has made a movie that clearly impressed a lot of people in a lot of different parts of the industry. A lot of heads were turned by how well Fincher and Zaillian brought Stieg Larsson's novel to the screen, in particular how he made an American film seem so Swedish. Also, it's entirely possible that some voters will feel bad for last year, when The Social Network was crushed by The King's Speech. Could they use Dragon Tattoo as a form of reparations?

Why it Probably Won't: Notice how I used the word respect, not love? Looking at the five films that are guaranteed spots, those are films that people passionately love. I've seen such love heaped on Bridesmaids, and Drive, and The Tree of Life, but not Dragon Tattoo. In particular, the snub by the SAG was a tough blow, as without any support from the actors this one will have a tough path to a nomination.

Bridesmaids

Guild Nominations:PGA Best Picture, SAG Best Ensemble; WGA Best Original Screenplay; ACE Best Editing-Contemporary, ADG Best Art Direction-Contemporary, CDG Best Costumes-Contemporary

Why it Has a Chance at a Nomination: Because it is extremely popular. Because people you wouldn't expect to love a raunchy comedy have openly embraced it. Because it has the support for the actors, which is always crucial. Because it is already looking at nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress.

Why it Probably Won't: Because this is the Oscars. At the end of the day, when Oscar voters sat down to list their nominees for Best Picture, how many of them do you really think put Bridesmaids at number one? There are already a lot of comedies in play this year. Are enough people going to put Bridesmaids at number one over The Artist, or Midnight in Paris, or Hugo, or The Descendants, to give it the number of votes it needs to get in? I just don't see that happening.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Guild Nominations: ASC Best Cinematography, ADG Best Art Direction-Period

Why it Almost Certainly Won't Get Nominated: Because nobody's really talking about it. Because every important guild overlooked it, which someone like Spielberg can overcome, but Tomas Alfredson can't. Because for a film that should appeal to actors it didn't get any SAG nominations and won't get any acting Oscar nominations. Because it is dark and depressing without offering the thrills or memorable moments of Dragon Tattoo or Drive.

Why it Has a Chance: Because of those Brits. There is a very large block of British voters in the Academy, and they will want to get behind a film with as much British pedigree as this one. Looking at the BAFTA's, you see that Tinker Tailor was hugely popular, with only The Artist challenging it for highest number of nominations. But can just that group of supporters be enough, if some of them get siphoned off by The Artist, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris? It's very unlikely, but it's possible.

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