Oscar 2012: Best Picture Nominees - The Final Predictions
By Tom Houseman
January 23, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com

He thought she was so nice in The Wedding Crashers...
For all of the vitriol spewed at the Academy for their decision to change the Best Picture nominating process to allow anywhere from five to ten nominees, instead of establishing the number of nominees beforehand, it has turned out to be a brilliant decision. True, there is no film like The Blind Side to stink up the Best Picture race this year, but simply for the excitement added to the race, the change was fantastic. If they had gone back to five nominees the race would be over, with almost no chance of any of the five leading contenders being left out. If they had stuck with ten, the eight leading contenders would all be certain of a nomination, and a handful of stragglers would be fighting it out for the last two spots knowing they are serving purely as filler. With the potential for all of the second-tier candidates to get in, but also the potential for none of them, it has made Best Picture by far the most exciting race of the year, exactly as it is supposed to be.

There are five films that are, barring an act of God (by which I mean Harvey Weinstein) definitely going to be Best Picture nominees. Those films are The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. If you don't know why these five are in then you clearly haven't been paying any attention to the Oscar race and I'm not sure why you decided to start now. Anyway, I'm not going to waste my time by going into any further detail about why all of them will be Best Picture nominees. Instead, I will focus on the films that are on the border, that probably will/might/could/have a chance at being nominated. So now, as a way of wrapping up the long slough from the NBR to the Oscar nominations, I will break down the chances of the seven films beyond those five that I think have the best chance of getting in.

Moneyball

Guild Nominations: PGA Best Picture, SAG Best Actor, SAG Best Supporting Actor, WGA Best Adapted Screenplay, ACE Best Editing-Drama, CAS Best Sound Mixing

Why it will probably be nominated: Because it is one of the best reviewed movies of the year. Because it is basically guaranteed nominations for Actor, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay. Because it will have support from the actors, the writers, and the sound mixers, apparently. Because it is a moving underdog story that will appeal to voters. Plus, Brad Pitt is frickin' dreamy.

Why it might not: Because it might not get any below the line nominations. Because it's kind of a downer. Because it's a movie that a lot of people really like, but not that many people passionately love. Remember, this year is all about those number one votes. How many people are going to put this one at number one? How many baseball fans are there in the Academy?

War Horse

Guild Nominations: PGA Best Picture, ACE Best Editing-Drama, VES Best Supporting Visual Effects

Why it might not get nominated: Because it is the kind of big sweeping epic that everybody in the film industry is supposed to fall all over themselves for, and apparently they haven't. The film has had a very sparse showing with the guilds, getting ignored by the DGA, the WGA, and the ASC. Those were supposed to be three easy nominations for a Spielberg war epic. Critics don't love it (78% on rotten tomatoes), audiences don't love it (it's barely made back its budget so far) and the guilds don't love it. That's not a good sign.

Why it probably will: I have three words for you, and one of those words is just there to emphasize the other two: Steven frickin' Spielberg. Yes, War Horse has underperformed at the guilds, and is not in as strong a position as it would like to be, but it is still a Steven Spielberg war film. It will still have a lot of supporters. Remember when Letters from Iwo Jima was striking out with every guild, but rallied to score Picture and Director nominations? If any film, and any any director, can pull off a similar feat, it is War Horse and Steven F. Spielberg (the F stands for Frickin').

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Guild Nominations: PGA Best Picture, DGA Best Director, WGA Best Adapted Screenplay, ASC Best Cinematography, ACE Best Editing-Drama, ADG Best Art Direction-Contemporary, CDG Best Costumes-Contemporary

Why it Might Get Nominated: Because there is clearly a lot of respect for this film. David Fincher is one of the most respected filmmakers working today, and he has made a movie that clearly impressed a lot of people in a lot of different parts of the industry. A lot of heads were turned by how well Fincher and Zaillian brought Stieg Larsson's novel to the screen, in particular how he made an American film seem so Swedish. Also, it's entirely possible that some voters will feel bad for last year, when The Social Network was crushed by The King's Speech. Could they use Dragon Tattoo as a form of reparations?

Why it Probably Won't: Notice how I used the word respect, not love? Looking at the five films that are guaranteed spots, those are films that people passionately love. I've seen such love heaped on Bridesmaids, and Drive, and The Tree of Life, but not Dragon Tattoo. In particular, the snub by the SAG was a tough blow, as without any support from the actors this one will have a tough path to a nomination.

Bridesmaids

Guild Nominations:PGA Best Picture, SAG Best Ensemble; WGA Best Original Screenplay; ACE Best Editing-Contemporary, ADG Best Art Direction-Contemporary, CDG Best Costumes-Contemporary

Why it Has a Chance at a Nomination: Because it is extremely popular. Because people you wouldn't expect to love a raunchy comedy have openly embraced it. Because it has the support for the actors, which is always crucial. Because it is already looking at nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress.

Why it Probably Won't: Because this is the Oscars. At the end of the day, when Oscar voters sat down to list their nominees for Best Picture, how many of them do you really think put Bridesmaids at number one? There are already a lot of comedies in play this year. Are enough people going to put Bridesmaids at number one over The Artist, or Midnight in Paris, or Hugo, or The Descendants, to give it the number of votes it needs to get in? I just don't see that happening.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Guild Nominations: ASC Best Cinematography, ADG Best Art Direction-Period

Why it Almost Certainly Won't Get Nominated: Because nobody's really talking about it. Because every important guild overlooked it, which someone like Spielberg can overcome, but Tomas Alfredson can't. Because for a film that should appeal to actors it didn't get any SAG nominations and won't get any acting Oscar nominations. Because it is dark and depressing without offering the thrills or memorable moments of Dragon Tattoo or Drive.

Why it Has a Chance: Because of those Brits. There is a very large block of British voters in the Academy, and they will want to get behind a film with as much British pedigree as this one. Looking at the BAFTA's, you see that Tinker Tailor was hugely popular, with only The Artist challenging it for highest number of nominations. But can just that group of supporters be enough, if some of them get siphoned off by The Artist, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris? It's very unlikely, but it's possible.

Drive and The Tree of Life

Drive's Guild Nominations: ADG Best Art Direction-Contemporary, CDG Best Costumes-Contemporary
The Tree of Life' Guild Nominations: ASC Best Cinematography

Why They Have to Be Considered: Because the rule is this year that a film has to receive at least five percent of the total votes to be nominated. This means that you have to get a lot of number one votes just to be in the running. While Tinker Tailor, Bridesmaids, and Moneyball are the sort of film that might be hindered by their lack of number one votes, Drive, The Tree of Life, and The Ides of March are the sort that will be helped by it. These are the films with small bands of passionate defenders, who foam at the mouth at the mention of Malick, or cream themselves over the sight of a leather jacket with a scorpion on it. The people who love these movies are loud, and they will do everything they can to get their cinematic crushes nominated.

Why They Almost Certainly Won't: These movies are the Ron Paul of this year's race. The people who love them really love them, but for the majority of voters they are too polarizing and too weird to ever get mass appeal. Drive is extremely silent and stylized. Directors like Eastwood, Scorsese and The Coens can pull off that kind of intense violence and still get support, but this is not that kind of movie, and it will certainly turn off many of the older voters. And The Tree of Life, well, it's clearly not for everyone. It is beautiful, yes, but the narrative is difficult to follow. How many voters will get lost in the long surreal montages and just decide that the movie isn't for them? Enough to keep it from a nomination? Almost certainly.

This new setup for Best Picture also provides a new challenge to predictors: how do you list your predictions? Personally, I think that in order to guess exactly how many films will be nominated for Best Picture requires not just the skill to predict the Oscars but also the ability to read minds, and since the radioactive iguana that bit me didn't give me that power (or really any other powers; iguanas are fairly useless animals) I'm not going to try. But at the same time I think just listing ten films is taking the easy way out. You are just as right if there are five nominees as if there are nine, assuming you picked all of the ones that made the list. That's why I decided to list my Best Picture nominations in order of likelihood of being nominated. That way, if there are only seven, as long as I got those seven right, I'm good as gravy. Personally, I have a hunch that there will only be six nominees this year, but I'm not willing to bet on that.


Below you will find my final Oscar nomination predictions, which I have been piecing together over the last month. I have made a few changes since writing about each category, and I will note where those changes will made. Keep in mind when looking at my predictions that I am really, really bad at predicting the nominees, and the last couple of years haven't even bothered. But I have dedicated so much time to each category this year that I really believe it will be extra embarrassing when I'm totally wrong, and that's an opportunity I can't pass up. Here goes nothing:

Best Picture:

1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Hugo
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. War Horse
8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9. Bridesmaids
10. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Director:

(Midnight in Paris and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo have both built a lot of support over the last month, and while I think Woody is in, I can't shake the feeling that Spielberg will find a spot and Fincher will get overlooked)

Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanivicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Steven Spielberg - War Horse

Best Actor:

George Clooney - The Descendants
Leonardo Dicaprio - J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Best Actress:
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk about Kevin
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor:

Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Best Supporting Actress:

Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shaileen Woodley - The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay:

(There's no safe prediction for the fifth spot, with Win Win and 50/50 both having equal claim. Call it a hunch that the older-leaning Win Win will get the nomination)

Michel Hazanivicius- The Artist
Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig - Bridesmaids
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Tom McCarthy - Win Win
Diablo Cody - Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay:

(Between Zaillian already getting nominated for Moneyball, the story of writer Bridget O'Connor's death, and the British voting block, I feel like Tinker Tailor will get in over The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, and Jim Rash - The Descendants
Tate Taylor - The Help
John Logan - Hugo
Aaron Sorkin and Stephen Zaillian - Moneyball
Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Best Art Direction:

Anonymous
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
War Horse

Best Cinematography:

The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Costumes:

Anonymous
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre

Best Film Editing:

(There is not as much love for War Horse as many expected, and this is one category where it will suffer because of it. Either Moneyball or Tinker Tailor could get in, but I'm going with Moneyball)

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

Best Makeup:

(When a film is sweeping it gets nominations wherever it can. I think The Artist is going to get in here instead of Albert Nobbs)

The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady

Best Sound Mixing:

(There's a reason I didn't write a long analysis of Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, and it's because I know diddly about what is going to get in to these two categories. I decided to do the honorable thing and cheat, combining the lists of three predictors I trust, Sasha Stone [Awards Daily] Kris Tapley [In Contention] and Joey Magidson [Awards Circuit]. The only predictions that are of my own invention are M:I 4 for Sound Mixing and Reel Steal for Sound Editing, so you can go ahead and disregard both of those)

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Mission: Impossible 4 – Ghost Protocol
Super 8
War Horse

Best Sound Editing:

The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8

Best Visual Effects:

(I'm really tempted to put Captain America in here, but I can't figure out which one would get pulled to make room for it)

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life

Best Original Score:
Ludovic Bource - The Artist
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Howard Shore - Hugo
Dario Marianelli - Jane Eyre
John Williams - War Horse

Best Original Song:
Lay Your Head Down - Albert Nobbs
Star Spangled Man - Captain America: The First Avenger
Hello Hello - Gnomeo and Juliet
The Living Proof - The Help
Pictures in My Head- The Muppets

Best Animated Film:

The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Puss in Boots
Rango
Rio

Best Documentary Feature:

(This is a mix of politically motivated films and smaller, personal stories. Project Nim is the frontrunner, so beyond that I'm going with gut feelings and random guesses. Still, I feel good about this list, although I'm tempted to try to find room for Bill Cunningham New York. Oh well.)

Buck
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Project Nim
We Were Here

Best Foreign Language Film:

(The Academy is trying to make it easy for me by giving me only nine choices from which to pick, but beyond A Separation, this is anyone's guess. I have a good feeling about the dark drama In Darkness and Wim Wenders' documentary about the late Pina Bousch, Pina. I might as well pick the other two out of a hat)

Footnote
In Darkness
Omar Killed Me
Pina
A Separation