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Max von Sydow is asking Santa to fill voters with love for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Things are not looking good for von Sydow, who was once a frontrunner in this race. Because of its very late release, Extremely Loud was not seen by many precursor voting groups. While this hasn't hurt films like Million Dollar Baby and True Grit, this film is not getting the kind of reviews that those did (it is sitting with a rotten 50% on Rotten Tomatoes). While it is unlikely that von Sydow will be nominated if Extremely Loud is not a Best Picture nominee, he can't be written off just yet.

Best Supporting Actress:
(Sure Things: Shaileen Woodley, Octavia Spencer)

Jessica Chastain is asking Santa to help voters forget that she was in Take Shelter

All of the confusion over what film Jessica Chastain will be noticed for has settled down, with virtually every group that has singled out one performance of hers going for The Help. Still, there is clearly a lot of love for Take Shelter, and this is one case where a lead getting nominated will hurt the supporting actor. Chastain is sitting very comfortably right now, but she is the most vulnerable of the three frontrunners.

Melissa McCarthy is asking Santa to give voters a sense of humor

When Bridesmaids became the surprise hit of the summer, people started talking about Melissa McCarthy as a potential Oscar nominee. With a BFCA nomination and SAG nomination, McCarthy is poised to take the field by storm, especially with Bridesmaids looking likely to get a Screenplay nomination to boot. But there are already three comedic actresses likely to be nominated (Spencer, Woodley, and Chastain). Will that be too much comedy for the Academy to handle? Will they need to ditch McCarthy in favor of a more serious actress? Probably not, but it's something to consider.

Janet McTeer is asking Santa to disassociate her from the movie she's in

Yes, Albert Nobbs has been getting wildly mediocre reviews, but for some reason that hasn't slowed McTeer down from building a lot of momentum. Getting a SAG and a Globes nod puts her in a very good position to be nominated for Oscar. But McTeer is the only contender in this race whose film is not getting glowing reviews, which leaves her vulnerable. If there is a lot more support for either Shame or Coriolanus than anybody realized, McTeer is the most likely to get hurt by it.

Carey Mulligan is asking Santa to make room for one more young star

Who would have thought that the chick from The Secret Life of the American Teenager would be an Oscar nominee but not the star of An Education, who was in two of the best-reviewed movies of the year? The BFCA nomination for Shame, plus a smattering of critics awards, has kept Mulligan in the running for her performance in Shame, but this category is practically locked with the five frontrunners in place, and Mulligan will likely get locked out. Still, as I said, a huge push of support for Shame could help this popular young actress get in, likely at the expense of Janet McTeer.

Vanessa Redgrave is asking Santa to tell voters to respect their elders

If there was a support group for previous Oscar favorites who have plummeted out of contention, Redgrave would be keeping von Sydow, Oldman and Close good company. Being ignored by the Globes, SAG, and the BFCA is a hard setback for anyone to overcome, especially considering Coriolanus is getting no buzz right now. Still, if anybody can magically make it into the race after being ignored by every major precursor, it is a beloved veteran like Redgrave. Plus, considering how young the rest of the field is, the Academy may want to mix things up with some older blood. Redgrave is not out of this race yet.

So while Santa is checking his list to see who's been naughty and who's been nice (my guess is sex addiction would get you on the naughty list, while tricking a former employer into eating poop could go either way), here are my predictions for all of the acting categories.

Best Actor:
George Clooney- The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio- J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin- The Artist
Michael Fassbender- Shame
Brad Pitt- Moneyball
Alternate: Demian Bichir- A Better Life

Best Actress:
Viola Davis- The Help
Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs
Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton- We Need to Talk about Kevin
Michelle Williams- My Week with Marilyn
Alternate: Charlize Theron- Young Adult

Best Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh- My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks- Drive
Jonah Hill- Moneyball
Nick Nolte- Warrior
Christopher Plummer- Beginners
Alternate: Max von Sydow- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Best Supporting Actress:
Jessica Chastain- The Help
Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer- Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer- The Help
Shaileen Woodley- The Descendants
Alternate: Vanessa Redgrave- Coriolanus

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