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Best Actress:
(Sure Things: Viola Davis, Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams)

Glenn Close is asking Santa to turn back time to when she was the favorite

Best Actress used to be a two-horse race between Meryl Streep and Glenn Close. How Close longs for those days. Between the mediocre reviews that Albert Nobbs has received and the thorough lack of precursor love for her, Close plummeted in the ranks for Best Actress contenders. Fortunately, her fall was broken by the Globes and the SAG. Receiving those nominations shows that Close is still likely to score an Oscar nod, but she is much more vulnerable than she was a month ago.

Rooney Mara is asking Santa to give The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo a Best Picture nomination

Mara is in basically the same position she was in at the start of the race, by which I mean totally reliant on love for her film to push her into awards contention. She has been holding steady throughout the precursors, partially because some groups didn't get a chance to see the film before they made their picks. But the SAG snub left her vulnerable, and Tilda Swinton and Charlize Theron are both gaining momentum much faster than Mara is. But if voters like Dragon Tattoo enough to give it a Best Picture nomination it will give Mara a huge boost, making it much easier for her to get a place in this category.

Elizabeth Olsen is asking Santa to brainwash voters

It seems that Olsen's hopes of being this year's Jennifer Lawrence are fading quickly. Martha Marcy May Marlene is not this year's indie darling, having been overshadowed by The Tree of Life and Take Shelter. Being ignored by both the SAG and the Globes is pretty much the death knell to Olsen. But will being the youngest actress in a field of mostly veterans help her at all? At this point her only shot is that a lot of voters want some young blood in the field, but even then they are more likely to go for Mara than Olsen.

Tilda Swinton is asking Santa to make sure voters keep talking about her

You'd better hope for your sake that Swinton doesn't get nominated, otherwise these “talk about” jokes will keep coming. It shocked a lot of people when both the SAG and the HFPA nominated Swinton for Best Actress, jumping her from dark horse to frontrunner very quickly. But We Need to Talk About Kevin is a very small film, and one that will likely be too dark and disturbing for some voters. If not enough voters end up seeing the film, and not enough of the ones who do see it get behind it, Swinton might be left out this year.

Charlize Theron is asking Santa to convince the voters that they like her, they really like her

In a field where all of the nominees tend to be sympathetic protagonists, there are a number of actresses here that are hard to root for, but Theron's alcoholic, stuck-up attempted adulterer might be the least likeable of them all. Will that make it too difficult for voters to support her? Will being the only actress in a genuine comedy be a benefit or a drawback to her chances of being nominated? She was a shoe-in for a Globe nomination, but would have really benefited from a SAG nod. Is being snubbed there a harbinger of what is to come, or will the love and respect for Theron overcome the obstacles she is facing and get her into the field?

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