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• The Descendants
  
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  
• The Help
  
• War Horse

*Which is actually a terrible strategy, considering it has a better chance of beating War Horse and The Descendants than of beating comedy The Artist.

Best Motion Picture-Musical/Comedy:

There are two kinds of films that get nominated here: the Best Picture favorites that can convince the HFPA that they're comedies, and the Hollywood blockbuster comedies that can convince the HFPA it won't look bad to nominate them. This category is already mostly full, with The Artist, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris getting cozy in their spots. Beyond that, the biggest critic and audience friendly comedy of the year is Bridesmaids, which seems exactly like the kind of film the HFPA will love. After that there are a number of films vying for the fifth spot. Young Adult seems like the obvious choice, considering how well Juno did at the Globes, but a couple of comedies are trying to play spoiler. 50/50 could be a hit here, as could Crazy, Stupid, Love, especially considering its big-name cast. If the HFPA wants to go the indie route, Win Win, Beginners or Another Happy Day could score here. Cameron Crowe's films typically do well here, so if there is a film to play spoiler, it's We Bought a Zoo.

• The Artist
  
• Bridesmaids
  
• Hugo
  
• Midnight in Paris
  
• Young Adult

Best Actor-Drama:

There is quite a bit of crossover between big stars and prestigious films this year, which I'm sure makes the HFPA happy. George Clooney, Leonardo Dicaprio, and Brad Pitt seem to be locks here, regardless of the success of their films in other categories. Gary Oldman is not as big a star as those three, but his name and the reviews raving about him make it look like he will be the fourth nominee. After that things are a bit more open. Ryan Gosling seems likely, as he is a big star who already has two Globe nominations, but vote splitting between his performances in Drive and The Ides of March might hurt him. Woody Harrelson also has two nominations, but his character in Rampart is very dark and unlikeable and the film hasn't gotten much attention. Michael Fassbender is a rising star who has gotten a lot of press for his performance in Shame, but would the HFPA be willing to embrace an NC-17 film? Other than those contenders there is Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Daniel Craig (Dragon Tattoo), and Tom Hardy (Warrior), who are on the fringe based on name recognition or the praise given to them thus far.

• George Clooney- The Descendants
  
• Leonardo Dicaprio- J. Edgar
  
• Ryan Gosling- The Ides of March
  
• Gary Oldman- Tailor, Tinker, Soldier, Spy
  
• Brad Pitt- Moneyball

Best Actor-Musical/Comedy:

Unlike the categories mentioned thus far, this race is wide open, with only Juan Dujardin guaranteed a spot. Beyond that there are several big name stars and Golden Globe favorites who could end up in this category. Matt Damon and Paul Giamatti are both frequent nominees, and while their films We Bought a Zoo and Win Win aren't likely to show up in any other categories, love for the actors could earn them nominations. Other big stars in indie comedies include Joseph Gordon Levitt (50/50) and Ewan McGregor (Beginners), or Brendan Gleeson (The Guard), all of whom have been nominated before. Owen Wilson has never been a Golden Globe nominee, but if there is enough love for Midnight in Paris he could get his first. Then again, if the HFPA just wants to screw it all and give in to their whorish tendencies, they could nominate Tom Hanks for Larry Crowne, Russell Brand for Arthur, or of course Johnny Depp. If they nominated him for The Tourist, nothing will stop them from doing it for The Rum Diary.

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