Oscar 2012: Golden Globes Predictions
By Tom Houseman
December 14, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
All of the major precursors have patterns, actors and types of films they like to nominate over and over again. Everybody who follows the race knew that, no matter how bad the reviews were, that J. Edgar was going to end up on the National Board of Review's Top 10 list, just because the NBR creams themselves every time Clint Eastwood so much as has a bowel movement. That's just one easy way to better predict any precursor, knowing from which wells they continually love to draw.
So what about the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the group behind the Golden Globes? Well, to put it in the most delicate way possible, they're a bunch of whores (putting it any less delicately would require several expletives, and this is a family site). The HFPA seems to have two goals every year: to be as relevant to the Oscars as possible, and to get as many celebrities as they can to come to their party. Last year was a particularly extreme example of this second goal in action. Did anybody really think that the HFPA really loved Red and The Tourist? No, but we all knew that by nominating those films, it was more likely that big stars such as Johnny Depp, Angelina Jolie, Bruce Willis and Helen Mirren would make appearances at the Golden Globes.
So yes, there are certain actors who, once the Globes decide they love them, will repeatedly get nominated there even for their lesser work. That's why Angelina Jolie has six Globe nominations to two Oscar nominations, and why Jim Carrey, who has never been nominated for an Oscar, has been nominated for the Globes six times and won twice. That being said, the HFPA have to make sure they're taken seriously, so they won't be nominating Carrey for Mr. Popper's Penguins. But their choices are always amusing, and always a good predictor of what films and actors have the best chance at the Oscars. You keeping up with me so far? Then let's get to the categories.
Best Motion Picture - Drama
In the weird world of the Globes, the prestigious Oscar bait dramas don't have to worry about the comedies or musicals stealing the spotlight. That means that every big Oscar film that gets good reviews is going to find a home here. The Descendants and War Horse are a given, and while The Help tried to convince the HFPA that it's a comedy to boost its chances of winning Best Picture*, it also has a spot reserved for it here. Beyond those three there are the films trying to keep a low profile and the films trying to get as much attention as possible. The Globes like two kinds of dramas: the prestigious kind, and the cool kind. Moneyball is neither of those, and I don't see it doing well here, whereas The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is exactly the kind of cool film the HFPA will love. I suspect Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy will have its love stolen by Dragon Tattoo, but the HFPA does love Brits. I suspect Drive will be too violent and weird for their tastes, and Margin Call and The Ides of March (although both have plenty of big stars) will be too topical, but they're definitely still in the running. Could Harry Potter sneak in here en route to an Oscar nomination? Highly unlikely, as the HFPA is most likely to view it as a “kids' film,” but if it has enough support, it could make it, especially if Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close turns out to be a dud.
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
War Horse
*Which is actually a terrible strategy, considering it has a better chance of beating War Horse and The Descendants than of beating comedy The Artist.
Best Motion Picture-Musical/Comedy:
There are two kinds of films that get nominated here: the Best Picture favorites that can convince the HFPA that they're comedies, and the Hollywood blockbuster comedies that can convince the HFPA it won't look bad to nominate them. This category is already mostly full, with The Artist, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris getting cozy in their spots. Beyond that, the biggest critic and audience friendly comedy of the year is Bridesmaids, which seems exactly like the kind of film the HFPA will love. After that there are a number of films vying for the fifth spot. Young Adult seems like the obvious choice, considering how well Juno did at the Globes, but a couple of comedies are trying to play spoiler. 50/50 could be a hit here, as could Crazy, Stupid, Love, especially considering its big-name cast. If the HFPA wants to go the indie route, Win Win, Beginners or Another Happy Day could score here. Cameron Crowe's films typically do well here, so if there is a film to play spoiler, it's We Bought a Zoo.
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Young Adult
Best Actor-Drama:
There is quite a bit of crossover between big stars and prestigious films this year, which I'm sure makes the HFPA happy. George Clooney, Leonardo Dicaprio, and Brad Pitt seem to be locks here, regardless of the success of their films in other categories. Gary Oldman is not as big a star as those three, but his name and the reviews raving about him make it look like he will be the fourth nominee. After that things are a bit more open. Ryan Gosling seems likely, as he is a big star who already has two Globe nominations, but vote splitting between his performances in Drive and The Ides of March might hurt him. Woody Harrelson also has two nominations, but his character in Rampart is very dark and unlikeable and the film hasn't gotten much attention. Michael Fassbender is a rising star who has gotten a lot of press for his performance in Shame, but would the HFPA be willing to embrace an NC-17 film? Other than those contenders there is Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Daniel Craig (Dragon Tattoo), and Tom Hardy (Warrior), who are on the fringe based on name recognition or the praise given to them thus far.
George Clooney- The Descendants
Leonardo Dicaprio- J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling- The Ides of March
Gary Oldman- Tailor, Tinker, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt- Moneyball
Best Actor-Musical/Comedy:
Unlike the categories mentioned thus far, this race is wide open, with only Juan Dujardin guaranteed a spot. Beyond that there are several big name stars and Golden Globe favorites who could end up in this category. Matt Damon and Paul Giamatti are both frequent nominees, and while their films We Bought a Zoo and Win Win aren't likely to show up in any other categories, love for the actors could earn them nominations. Other big stars in indie comedies include Joseph Gordon Levitt (50/50) and Ewan McGregor (Beginners), or Brendan Gleeson (The Guard), all of whom have been nominated before. Owen Wilson has never been a Golden Globe nominee, but if there is enough love for Midnight in Paris he could get his first. Then again, if the HFPA just wants to screw it all and give in to their whorish tendencies, they could nominate Tom Hanks for Larry Crowne, Russell Brand for Arthur, or of course Johnny Depp. If they nominated him for The Tourist, nothing will stop them from doing it for The Rum Diary.
Matt Damon- We Bought a Zoo
Johnny Depp- The Rum Diary
Juan Dujardin- The Artist
Paul Giamatti- Win Win
Joseph Gordon Levitt- 50/50
Best Actress-Drama:
This is a very tight category, considering that almost every Oscar contender for Best Actress is starring in a dramatic film. Meryl Streep is a perennial contender at both the Oscars and the Globes, and there's no reason to think she won't be in the running for The Iron Lady. Michelle Williams and Viola Davis are getting tons of buzz right now, and I can't imagine them being left out here. If the Globes embrace HFPA, Rooney Mara will get in on that bear hug; if not, it will be tougher for her. Glenn Close has been overlooked by many precursors, but she has typically been a Globe favorite (winning for her role in the TV drama Damages) so this will be a big nomination for her. Could a smaller indie contender break through? Elizabeth Olsen , Tilda Swinton and Felicity Jones are all in the running. If the HFPA wants another big name star, there is always Keira Knightley in A Dangerous Method, Mia Wasikowska in Jane Eyre, or even Anne Hathaway in the romantic drama One Day.
Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis- The Help
Rooney Mara- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams- My Week with Marilyn
Best Actress-Musical/Comedy:
Usually, the more packed a drama category is, the more open its comedic counterpart will be, and this year is no exception. The only Oscar contender in this race is Charlize Theron, which makes her the de facto favorite here. The HFPA will likely take this opportunity to fill the category with big-name stars in audience favorites. Julia Roberts is the most likely for Larry Crowne, with Kristen Wiig another good bet for Bridesmaids. Beyond that, Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman could make it in for their roles in Friends With Benefits and No Strings Attached (if the HFPA can tell the difference between the two), as could Scarlett Johansson for We Bought a Zoo. The two ladies of Crazy, Stupid, Love, Emma Stone and Julianne Moore, are both HFPA favorites and could break into this category. Ellen Barkin starred in a much smaller film, the indie comedy Another Happy Day, but she got very good reviews for her performance, and has been nominated for two Globes in the past.
Ellen Barkin- Another Happy Day
Mila Kunis- Friends with Benefits
Julia Roberts- Larry Crowne
Charlize Theron- Young Adult
Kristen Wiig- Bridesmaids
Best Supporting Actor:
This category tends to be filled with veterans, although it does not skew quite as old as The SAG does. Albert Brooks and Chrisopher Plummer are riding high right now, so they're in, but beyond that, it is mostly a matter of which films the HFPA loved. John Hawkes got his Oscar campaign for Winter's Bone kicked off at the Globes last year, so he seems a safe choice for his role in Martha Marcy May Marlene. I have a sneaking suspicion that the HFPA won't love Hugo as much as the critics, but if they do they will probably nominate Ben Kingsley. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close seems more up their alley, which means good things for Max von Sydow. If one of those options doesn't get the support, Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) and Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) are both in the running. Of course, if the HFPA is looking for more big stars to stuff in here, George Clooney, Jonah Hill, or even Nick Nolte could find themselves nominated.
Albert Brooks- Drive
John Hawkes- Martha Marcy May Marlene
Ben Kingsley- Hugo
Christopher Plummer- Beginners
Max von Sydow- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Best Supporting Actress:
This category is perhaps most exemplary of being a combination of Oscar frontrunners and popular stars. Octavia Spencer is the former, and Melissa McCarthy is the latter, so both should easily get in here. Shailene Woodley also looks pretty comfortable, especially as the only young actress in contention. I suspect that The HFPA will love The Artist, which means Berenice Bejo has a very good chance of being here. That leaves one spot for the big star, the veteran, and the up-and-comer to fight over. Will it be Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus) or Jessica Chastain (The Help or Take Shelter)? If there are any surprises here, look for Janet McTeer to sneak in for Albert Nobbs, HFPA favorite Carey Mulligan to get a huge Oscar bump for her role in Shame (if the HFPA can handle such a dark film), or even a nomination for beloved veteran Judi Dench, for either J. Edgar or My Week with Marilyn.
Berenice Bejo- The Artist
Sandra Bullock- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer- The Help
Shailene Woodley- The Descendants
Best Director:
You wouldn't think star power would be as important here as in the acting categories, but it is, and more importantly, the HFPA always looks to nominate people they love. They love Steven Spielberg, Stephen Daldry, and David Fincher. They really love Martin Scorsese (nominated seven times) and Alexander Payne (director nominations for both Sideways and About Schmidt). That makes this category very packed, especially because Michael Havanizicius, director of The Artist, will almost certainly get one of these spots. If for some reason the Globes doesn't fall behind one or more of these contenders (they might not care for Hugo, Dragon Tattoo or Extremely Loud), then there might be room for Terrence Malick, Thomas Alfredson, or even Nicolas Winding Refn. But odds are this category will be packed with beloved veterans. Which of them won't make the cut is anybody's guess.
David Fincher- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michael Havazanicius- The Artist
Alexander Payne- The Descendants
Martin Scorsese- Hugo
Steven Spielberg- War Horse
Best Screenplay:
As much as the HFPA likes to nominate the big fan favorites, being limited to five screenplays tends to make them go conservative; they occasionally squeeze in a romantic Comedy, but generally it is just the Oscar contenders, and mostly the dramas. The Artist and The Descendants are the two most certain picks, but beyond that a number of films are vying for the very few spots. War Horse, Extremely Loud and Dragon Tattoo are all based on prestigious and popular works, which gives them an edge. Woody Allen has, surprisingly enough, not gotten a lot of love from the Globes of late, with only Match Point his only nomination here for over 20 years. Midnight in Paris seems likely to change that trend, though. If the HFPA is going to embrace an aspect of Moneyball, it will be its screenplay, and if they can find any room for comedies, Bridesmaids and Young Adult both have good shots.
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Best Original Score
This is a particularly difficult category to predict, because every year it seems that there is at least one, and often more than one, totally oddball nomination that shows up here. I feel confident that Extremely Loud's score will be represented here, as it is the one thing about the film that is being universally raved about. The Social Network won this category last year, which makes me suspect that Dragon Tattoo will also make it here. If they love The Artist then they will have to nominate its score, as it is a defining part of the narrative. Beyond those there are the traditional scores, War Horse, Hugo, and Harry Potter. There are also more unconventional choices, like The Descendants, Drive, J. Edgar (Eastwood is a favorite in this category) and The Tree of Life. There's even room for something totally out there, such as Hanna, Jane Eyre, or Super 8. The HFPA doesn't like to go too indie in this category, but really anything with a score is on the table.
The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Best Original Song
This is a category where the HFPA likes to go much more mainstream than the Academy does, often picking pop songs from hit films along with more traditional fare. As a result, expect the Oscar favorites to be mixed with the crowd-friendly hits. The Help will almost certainly be represented here, as will The Muppets. Winnie the Pooh, Gnomeo and Juliet, and Cars 2 all have songs in the running, as does Cameron Crowe's We Bought a Zoo. Some smaller films that could sneak in include Albert Nobbs, Machine Gun Preacher, and Win Win. This is never a very crowded category, and often some random song from a blockbuster or a foreign film gets dropped in here, just to make us all scratch our heads. Star Spangled Man from Captain America maybe?
Gathering Stories- We Bought a Zoo
Hello Hello- Gnomeo and Juliet
Lay Your Head Down- Albert Nobbs
Life's a Happy Song- The Muppets
Living Proof- The Help
Best Animated Film:
This category was added to the Globes a lot more recently than it was to the Oscars, which means this year we have lot of questions we can't really answer. Mainly: How sequel averse will the HFPA be? With two sequels (Cars 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2) and a spin-off (Puss in Boots) trying to break in, which will be embraced, and which will be snubbed? No motion-capture film has ever made into this category, but The Adventures of Tintin could break that trend. The only two that seem to be sure things are Rango and Rio, with Arthur Christmas as the only other original story in the running. If all that CGI is too much for the HFPA, there might be room for Winnie the Pooh.
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Rango
Rio
Best Foreign Language Film:
Not being bound by the complex and often absurd rules of the Academy allows the HFPA to nominate more mainstream, popular foreign films - if either of those words can really be used to describe foreign films. Some of the more critically acclaimed foreign films this year include Iran's A Separation, Finland's Le Havre, and, because there's always a Holocaust drama, Poland's In Darkness. If the HFPA wants to stray from the slow and depressing dramas, there is Brazil's Elite Squad: The Enemy Within (it has a political bent, which usually helps in this category), France's Love Crime, Japan's 13 Assassins, or the animated Chico & Rita. Pedro Almodovar is in the race, and he is always a threat, so look out for The Skin I Live In. Also to consider is Angelina Jolie's In the Land of Blood and Honey, which is in Bosnian. Would the HFPA pass up a chance to nominate such a big star?
Elite Squad: The Enemy Within
In the Land of Blood and Honey
Le Havre
A Separation
The Skin I Live In