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The Contenders:

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

You could claim that Extremely Loud has an advantage in this race considering the prestige and popularity of its source material, but try telling that to The Lovely Bones, The Kite Runner, and The Shipping News. Extremely Loud is still the big unknown in the race, and it seems like the deeper into the race we get, the more suspicion there is that it is going to be a bust. Of course, right now that suspicion is manifesting as Internet buzz, which means it might be having no effect on the mindset of the voters. If Extremely Loud is a hit, its screenplay is a sure thing, but right now its status in any category - especially one as connected to the Best Picture race as Adapted Screenplay is - can't be anything except a question mark.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

This is one film that I could very easily see getting into this category even without an accompanying Best Picture nomination. I suspect that many Academy members will have read the source material, considering how huge a hit the series of novels is, which will predispose them to the film. Early reviews have been very positive, if not necessarily glowing, but the film is clearly very dark and difficult, which will give it a difficult path to the Best Picture. However, if the film is a commercial and critical hit - and it seems very likely that it will be - a Screenplay nomination seems likely as a consolation prize. Of course, if Dragon Tattoo does get a Best Picture nomination, then it will have a spot in this category waiting for it.

The Help

Remember when I talked about how most Best Picture nominees are loved for either their director, their screenplay, or their cast? Well The Help is definitely getting all of its attention for its cast. That means that it will have tough going in a very crowded category, in which it is competing against seven other serious Best Picture contenders. If The Academy loves this film as much as the public did, though, then no category is off the table, and while a win here is a bit of a stretch, a nomination is in play. But if The Help is this year's version of The Blind Side, then it will likely get a Picture Nomination and two or three acting nods, but will likely be absent here.

Hugo

Remember in that last paragraph when I referenced the thing I wrote earlier about the cast and the writers and the directors or whatever? Well Hugo is definitely a director's film. This is Scorsese's movie, his love letter to cinema, and when people talk about it, they talk about the spectacle, the beauty, the magic, but not so much the characters or the story. Like The Help, Hugo is contingent in this category on the extent of the Academy's love for it. A good sign of its potential to win Best Picture will be its presence here. Without a mention for its screenplay it will be looked at as an also-ran in the big race, but if it shows up in this category than it might be a serious threat to take home the gold.

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