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Midnight in Paris

I mentioned in a previous article that the last Woody Allen movie to be nominated for Best Picture was Hannah and Her Sisters in 1987, but that doesn't mean that Oscar has been ignoring him since then. In the interim Allen has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay eight times, most recently in 2006 for Match Point. Almost every time Allen makes a popular film it gets nominated here (the notable exception being Vicky Christina Barcelona), and considering Midnight in Paris is his most popular ever, it seems as close to a lock as we can get this early in the race. Cruising to a WGA win with The Artist out of the way will be a very helpful notch in this film's belt.

The Safe Bets

Bridesmaids

Every once in a while the Academy likes to indulge the masses by nominating a popular comedy for its screenplay. Other than Pixar films, the last big hit comedy to get nominated was Borat, and before that My Big Fat Greek Wedding, so we're about due for another one. Bridesmaids has a lot of very vocal supporters, having gotten critical acclaim on top of its major box-office results; once people got past the comparisons to The Hangover, they realized this was a surprisingly mature comedy with enough fart jokes to appeal to everybody. The only issue voters might have is if they feel that this category is too comedy heavy, and could pass this film over for more serious fare.

Young Adult

Diablo Cody made a splash at the Oscars a few years ago when her first film, Juno, turned a swell of support into an overpowering wave of momentum en route to a Best Original Screenplay Oscar. Now Cody is back, teaming up again with director Jason Reitman and hoping to again take this category by storm. This is a different race for Cody, though. When Juno won it was a Best Picture nominee, which Young Adult will almost certainly not be. Juno was competing against only one other Best Picture nominee, the also-ran Michael Clayton, while this year two serious contenders to win Best Picture will be crowding the category. While Cody's clout makes her seem to be a likely nominee, if Young Adult does not get very good reviews, and one of the smaller contenders picks up steam, Cody could be on the outside facing in this time around.

The Contenders:

Martha Marcy May Marlene

Sundance hits tend to do well in this category, as it seems to be the only place where the Academy is willing to acknowledge edgier fare. It doesn't get much edgier than this film (oh wait, see the very next film I mention to show that it does) which will be difficult for the Academy to embrace. It's clearly not going to be this year's Winter's Bone, but if it stays in the playing field and support builds for its two stars - Lead Actress Elizabeth Olsen and Supporting Actor John Hawkes - then this screenplay could also be rewarded with a nomination. This is a film that would really benefit from a WGA nomination, so it is a shame it is not eligible. It will need a lot of critical support to keep it in the race.

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