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Reagen Sulewski: Considering that it's already slipped from two years ago's opening, I wouldn't take it for granted at all that it'll beat its own franchise record. It's certainly possible, but if we're already shedding viewers in the final bend, there's no telling how many might get shaken loose before the last stretch. Summit will go all out to try and get it, for sure, but wanting and having are two different things.

David Mumpower: I concur with Reagen's assessment that this is not a foregone conclusion. We are looking at what happened with Deathly Hallows Parts 1 and 2 wherein the film spiked from $125.0 million to $169.2 million in its final opening weekend. That's a single instance rather than a blueprint. Yes, Twilight's producers are hoping for this result but there is a key difference here. $125.0 million was the best opening for the Harry Potter franchise by over $20 million. There was growth behavior demonstrated.

As staggering as Twilight's box office performance has been (and there are not enough superlatives in the English language to express how spectacularly it's succeeded financially), it is on the decline in terms of first five days of box office. New Moon established the standard with $164.7 million while Eclipse fell off a bit to $157.6 million. At best, Breaking Dawn Part 1 matches New Moon. We are faced with the distinct possibility that as passionate as Twilight fans are, we have reached a point of diminishing returns. The audience is not growing and only unprecedented box office inflation is keeping the numbers in line. I do not see an opening weekend far in excess of New Moon's $142.8 million as a certainty.

Edwin Davies: As I said in regards to the previous question, I fully expect Breaking Dawn Part Deux to break the franchise record and come close to beating Harry Potter's. Whilst I agree with Jim that the main advantage Potter had was the amount of time that the franchise had to develop a fanbase, I think that Twilight has the advantage since its fanbase has formed more quickly and is more rabid in its devotion. I know that there are a lot of hardcore Harry Potter fans out there, but they always seem to be in the minority, whereas EVERY Twilight fan seems to be hardcore at this point, and that level of obsession is what makes me think that, come this time next year, we will see people taking in multiple screenings over the weekend as these poor, misguided souls say goodbye to their paper-thin heroes, in the process putting Breaking Dawn Part 2 perilously close to breaking the opening weekend record.

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