Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

November 21, 2011

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We wonder what the next generation's vampire fad will be. Dracula, Nosferatu, Lestat, Edward...?

Kim Hollis: Do you think this opening is the limit of the franchise, or do you think the final film in the Twilight series will open larger than the rest and possibly approach the opening weekend record?

Bruce Hall: I think that the Twilight fanbase is an incredibly obsessed and passionate group of...um...people...the likes of which we probably haven't seen since the glory days of Star Trek. Those would be the people whose devotion stretched a 79 episode show about an Alpha Male, a dysfunctional alien and a pissed off doctor in space into the Keith Richards of science fiction franchises. I'm not sure even Team Twilight has that kind of pull but I guarantee you they will turn out in organized fashion in an attempt to make the last film as successful as possible. The truly curious thing about Twihards is that like their close cousin the Tebowmaniac, they seem to take the backlash very personally.

Matthew Huntley: There's no doubt in my mind the final film in the franchise will have the biggest opening weekend of the series, but will it beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II? I doubt it, but Summit will undoubtedly market it the same way Warner Bros. did HP, by making us all too aware it is the last installment and urging us to be part of a cultural phenomenon (which Twilight arguably is).




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Brett Beach: I broached a little of this in the first question, but I do think the midnight record is a safe bet to fall, the single/opening day a little less likely, and the opening weekend probably not, especially if Part 2 isn't going to be IMAX/3D. For comparison HP and the DH Part 2 started with $170 million and still finished with well under $400 million. I think Breaking Dawn Part 2 will come close to $350 million.

Shalimar Sahota: I imagine that the final film will open higher than any of the other films in the franchise, but given where Breaking Dawn Part I ended up, it won't be by a huge margin. The record set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II will be safe, unless Warners bests it themselves with The Dark Knight Rises.

Jim Van Nest: I also think Breaking Dawn, Part 2 will be the largest opening of the franchise and I think it will approach Deathly Hallows Part 2. The one thing Harry Potter had going for it that Twilight doesn't is the length of the series. Twilight opened in 2008. BD, Part 2 will touch down in 2012. That's five films in five years. Impressive, yes...but it's not the same as an eight film series released over a decade. In the time between Sorcerer's Stone and DH Part 2, a whole new generation was introduced to Harry Potter. Kids who were still in the crib when Potter 1 was in theaters were in line for midnight showings of Potter 8. That is why, in my opinion, BD Part 2 won't keep pace. Not because it's not gaining fans, it just hasn't had the longevity to gain enough fans to pass up Harry. Whatever the final tally is though, I look forward to the BOP final recap of the Twilight phenomenon next Thanksgiving!


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