Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 11, 2011

This looks like a shot from the set of Brick II (If you haven't watched Brick, you don't get this)

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Super 8

J.J. Abrams' Super 8 is the top movie on Friday with $12.2 million, which is totally fine for a movie that's, well, impossible to describe.

Where it goes is also hard to say due to that same reason. The '80s throwback could draw in lookie-loos and have an above average multiplier, it could have shot its wad opening night or it could build on this opening with word-of-mouth, which is obviously what Paramount is hoping for.

Looking at the somewhat-related Cloverfield (produced by Abrams and was also generally vague in its marketing), that had a $17.1 million opening day in January of 2008, on its way to a $40 million weekend (still a January record, by the way), a 2.33 weekend multiplier. That would be an abysmal worst-case scenario for Super 8, and is probably not likely thanks to it definitely not being a monster movie. Based on social networking buzz, it's playing to adults who grew up with the late '70s/early '80s Spielberg oeuvre, but is a tougher sell to younger audiences. That might hurt it over the rest of this weekend and in the long run, unless word-of-mouth really kicks in.

What's most likely is a weekend of $33 million, with legs to be determined next weekend.


Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer

I... can't believe I just had to type that title. Anyway, the movie based on some alleged children's lit series earned $2.2 million, good for seventh place on Friday. Blah blah blah, DVD sales, yadda yadda. Give Judy Moody $6.4 million for the weekend and be done with it.

Notable Holdovers

Last weekend's only opener, X-Men: First Class took in $7.7 million in its second Friday. That's a 63% decline from last Friday, which should shock nobody. Going all the way back to X-Men in 2000, that fell 65% on its second Friday and the most recent entry, 2009's X-Men Origins: Wolverine dropped 75.8%, so things could have been much worse. A second weekend of $24.1 million should be in the cards here.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Super 8 33.0
2 X-Men: First Class 24.1
3 The Hangover Part II 17.6
4 Kung Fu Panda 2 17.1
5 Pirates of the Carribean: On Stranger Tides 10.8
6 Bridesmaids 10.1
7 Midnight in Paris 7.1
8 Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer 6.4
9 Thor 2.3
10 Fast Five 1.8



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