Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
June 11, 2011
J.J. Abrams' Super 8 is the top movie on Friday with $12.2 million, which is totally fine for a movie that's, well, impossible to describe.
Where it goes is also hard to say due to that same reason. The '80s throwback could draw in lookie-loos and have an above average multiplier, it could have shot its wad opening night or it could build on this opening with word-of-mouth, which is obviously what Paramount is hoping for.
Looking at the somewhat-related Cloverfield (produced by Abrams and was also generally vague in its marketing), that had a $17.1 million opening day in January of 2008, on its way to a $40 million weekend (still a January record, by the way), a 2.33 weekend multiplier. That would be an abysmal worst-case scenario for Super 8, and is probably not likely thanks to it definitely not being a monster movie. Based on social networking buzz, it's playing to adults who grew up with the late '70s/early '80s Spielberg oeuvre, but is a tougher sell to younger audiences. That might hurt it over the rest of this weekend and in the long run, unless word-of-mouth really kicks in.
What's most likely is a weekend of $33 million, with legs to be determined next weekend.
[tm:5100_]Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer[/tm]
I... can't believe I just had to type that title. Anyway, the movie based on some alleged children's lit series earned $2.2 million, good for seventh place on Friday. Blah blah blah, DVD sales, yadda yadda. Give Judy Moody $6.4 million for the weekend and be done with it.
Last weekend's only opener, [tm:4789_]X-Men: First Class[/tm] took in $7.7 million in its second Friday. That's a 63% decline from last Friday, which should shock nobody. Going all the way back to X-Men in 2000, that fell 65% on its second Friday and the most recent entry, 2009's X-Men Origins: Wolverine dropped 75.8%, so things could have been much worse. A second weekend of $24.1 million should be in the cards here.