Survivor: Redemption Island
Episode 11 - Power Rankings
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
April 27, 2011
Ralph - 30-1. I'm not totally sure why, but Ralph is still in the game. Seems like he should have been gone a while ago, doesn't it? I think he's a real threat to win, if he gets to the final. I was really surprised to see Julie chosen over Ralph (and Steve) last week. I'm not 100% sold on the fact that Zapatera will be totally obliterated before the Ometepes turn on each other. That could leave the last of the Zaps with an opportunity to go farther. Ralph could benefit here. Also, while he hasn't won immunity, he always seems to be right there...so he could also do damage on RI.
Mike - 50-1. Mike proved he's no slouch and can handle himself in a duel. He has all the votes of the Zapateras if he makes it back into the game. The longer we go, the more I think the person coming back will come back at the Final Three. If that happens, Mike could easily be the winner here. No matter what happens, he's assured of making it through this week.
Matt - 75-1. I know they're showing Matt breaking down and maybe it's because tonight is finally his swan song. But I don't think so. No way Julie beats him, so he has at least one more week in him. Also, the two most likely to be voted out, Phillip and Steve, pose no threat to Matt (or Mike for that matter), so I feel pretty confident putting Matt ahead of those guys in this week's rankings. I just wonder how many final votes Matt would get, seeing as he's been voted out of this game twice.
Steve - 100-1. I list Steve here because I think he has the best shot of being voted out this week. I don't think he has much of a shot of beating Matt and Mike to get back in the game. However, if all of that actually happens, he would get the votes needed to win at the end, so he's not a non-threat. At this point, I'm pretty sure some of the Ometepes would vote for him over Phillip.
Phillip - 250-1. I know Rob loves him. He's been a loyal soldier. But after his display last week, I think even Rob will realize that the time to cut Phillip loose is fast approaching. He's done nothing to show he can win a challenge or a duel, so once he's voted out, he's pretty much on the jury. The Zaps want him gone. Half of Rob's alliance wants him gone. At this point, Rob couldn't save him if he wanted to. The only reason he's not at the bottom of the Power Rankings is because of...
Julie - One million-1. Julie has been a physical non-factor, despite the "guns." She is as overmatched for a duel as anyone has been this season. I really don't think there's a challenge/duel they could create that she would be favored over Matt and Mike to win. As much as we all laughed with her as she hid Phillip's shorts, that was her last relevant move in this game. Unless something goes horribly awry, we should say goodbye to Julie tonight.
To recap, I've gone from proclaiming Julie as totally safe last week, to predicting that she'll have to burn her buff tonight. Let's see if I get THIS one right. Until Friday gang, take care!