Survivor: Redemption Island
Episode 11 - Power Rankings
By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst
April 27, 2011
BoxOfficeProphets.com
When last we met, I proclaimed Julie as the safest of the Zapateras. She was promptly voted out of the game. Yay, me! I did, however, have David as the player leaving last week, so I did get SOMEthing right.
Previews for tonight suggest Matt's resolve could be weakening and we have a mystery package twist. Could more than one person be headed to Redemption Island again? We'll have to check that out tonight. Until then, though, how about a quick dose of Survivor: Redemption Island Power Rankings?
Rob - 3-1. I'm leaving Rob here, but I'm a little more shaky about it tonight. If he can hold his alliance together after Phillip's obnoxiousness last week, you'd think he can withstand anything. But the longer we go, the bigger his target becomes. If he didn't have an idol, he may not be #1 this week. But he does, so that should buy him at least three more days.
Natalie - 5-1. Natalie stays here and probably will, all the way to the end. I think of everyone left, she is the biggest lock for the final three there is. I just don't know that she'll have enough of an end game to finish it out and win the whole thing. I do think that it will be a huge upset for her to not be pleading her case to the jury on May 15th.
Andrea - 10-1. I still think there's some game left in Andrea. She just strikes me as biding her time. She's not upsetting the apple cart...but if you notice, she's not upsetting the Zaps either. If she makes it to the Final Three, she may be the "lesser of three evils" option for the Zapateras.
Ashley - 20-1. With the Ometepes having complete control, this looks like a good place for Ashley. She has made no friends on Zapatera and has irritated Rob by talking to Ralph. If Rob stays in the game, she has no shot. But if someone else orchestrates Rob's ouster, Ashley could find her way into the final episode.
Grant - 25-1. I still think Grant's athletic ability and skill in challenges make him a huge threat. I can't really tell where he is with Rob at this point, but he still seems to be following. If he were smart, he'd team up with the girls and remove Rob from this game. Not sure if he's got it in him, though. Either way, I fully expect him to last throughout the Pagonging of Zapatera. After that, it does kind of become anyone's game. Also, if he were to get voted out, he is the kind of guy who could dominate Redemption Island.
Ralph - 30-1. I'm not totally sure why, but Ralph is still in the game. Seems like he should have been gone a while ago, doesn't it? I think he's a real threat to win, if he gets to the final. I was really surprised to see Julie chosen over Ralph (and Steve) last week. I'm not 100% sold on the fact that Zapatera will be totally obliterated before the Ometepes turn on each other. That could leave the last of the Zaps with an opportunity to go farther. Ralph could benefit here. Also, while he hasn't won immunity, he always seems to be right there...so he could also do damage on RI.
Mike - 50-1. Mike proved he's no slouch and can handle himself in a duel. He has all the votes of the Zapateras if he makes it back into the game. The longer we go, the more I think the person coming back will come back at the Final Three. If that happens, Mike could easily be the winner here. No matter what happens, he's assured of making it through this week.
Matt - 75-1. I know they're showing Matt breaking down and maybe it's because tonight is finally his swan song. But I don't think so. No way Julie beats him, so he has at least one more week in him. Also, the two most likely to be voted out, Phillip and Steve, pose no threat to Matt (or Mike for that matter), so I feel pretty confident putting Matt ahead of those guys in this week's rankings. I just wonder how many final votes Matt would get, seeing as he's been voted out of this game twice.
Steve - 100-1. I list Steve here because I think he has the best shot of being voted out this week. I don't think he has much of a shot of beating Matt and Mike to get back in the game. However, if all of that actually happens, he would get the votes needed to win at the end, so he's not a non-threat. At this point, I'm pretty sure some of the Ometepes would vote for him over Phillip.
Phillip - 250-1. I know Rob loves him. He's been a loyal soldier. But after his display last week, I think even Rob will realize that the time to cut Phillip loose is fast approaching. He's done nothing to show he can win a challenge or a duel, so once he's voted out, he's pretty much on the jury. The Zaps want him gone. Half of Rob's alliance wants him gone. At this point, Rob couldn't save him if he wanted to. The only reason he's not at the bottom of the Power Rankings is because of...
Julie - One million-1. Julie has been a physical non-factor, despite the "guns." She is as overmatched for a duel as anyone has been this season. I really don't think there's a challenge/duel they could create that she would be favored over Matt and Mike to win. As much as we all laughed with her as she hid Phillip's shorts, that was her last relevant move in this game. Unless something goes horribly awry, we should say goodbye to Julie tonight.
To recap, I've gone from proclaiming Julie as totally safe last week, to predicting that she'll have to burn her buff tonight. Let's see if I get THIS one right. Until Friday gang, take care!