Survivor: Redemption Island

Rice Wars

By Jim Van Nest, Survivor Analyst

April 21, 2011

I'm really good at puzzles. I swear.

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Grant - 25-1. Grant showed a smidge of independence last week and he's a beast in challenges. That has got to make him target #1 once the Zapateras are gone. I wouldn't be shocked to see Grant dumped before one of the Zaps such as Julie, because he's a much bigger threat. As it is now though, the Ometepes are in complete control, so they have to be my top six.

Julie - 30-1. Julie is the quietest of the Zaps and is probably the least concerning. I definitely expect her to be last in the pecking order for them. What will be interesting is when she is the only one left; there could be a couple Ometepes who could get the boot before her - which could be a bad idea for anyone wanting to make the end game. You have to finish an opponent when you have them down. Leaving Julie alive in this game could be a bad move.

Ralph - 50-1. I have no love for Ralph and he really should be the vote tonight. But with the blowup between Phillip and Steve, I think that's the way they'll have to vote - which means Ralph gets a three-day reprieve to maybe stumble onto another idol or at least grow some more hair. If Ralph's still alive after next week, I'll be shocked.

Steve - 75-1. Steve will be the target tonight. Apparently, he really gets to Phillip tonight and that will be enough to punch his ticket. Not that Phillip is a strong player, but because if a rift is that big and you have a 6-3 advantage, you can juggle the order to make one of your alliance mates happy. The question is who will be left at RI to face Steve.


Mike - 100-1. I'm putting it all on the line and picking Mike to walk away from the RI duel tonight. Matt's been an incredible story, but I think it's come to an end. He had no real challenger the first time through on RI. This time, he has two very strong competitors coming in to take their shot at him. Judging by performances in challenges this season, I have to give the edge to Mike on this one.

Matt - 250-1. I'll give Matt the edge over David, though. Matt has the experience and he's used to RI, so he is definitely a threat to win his way back into the game again. I think he has enough to beat David in most any challenge, but I still think his time is up.

David - 500-1 As much as I like David as a personality and a player, he just ended up with the wrong group of people and he's hitting an RI duel against the wrong dudes. Maybe this will be the day that David shows us why everyone thinks he's so great at puzzles - but I'm not betting on it.

We begin tonight's episode on Redemption Island. Matt is talking to God. This is nothing new really, except this time, he's basically saying that he's done with this game, but he'll stay in it if it's God's will. During his prior stint on RI, he was hell bent on getting back and having his revenge. This time, he seems like he's just done. You hate to see it, but you can't really blame him. He's surprised by David's arrival. And now with three people at RI, he has no idea what will happen with the next duel. They discuss it with Mike and they all agree that they don't have a clue what's to come.

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