Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

March 5, 2011

That looks more like four amigos than three.

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At last, studios are putting some interesting product into theaters, hoping that audiences who have been stingy with their movie-going dollars will pony up some cash. Could an animated flick and a Matt Damon sci-fi thriller do the trick?

Rango

Although expectations were probably higher, Rango had an opening Friday of $9.6 million for Paramount Pictures. There are a number of reasons that it's a few million under what How to Train Your Dragon did in March of 2010. First off, despite fabulous reviews, the film seems to be somewhat sketchy as a family flick. Reviews note that it's lots of fun, but possibly not appropriate for all children. What this means is that in marketing the film, it had to have been tough to find the best bits to highlight in order to entice families into theaters. It does seem that word has gotten around about its age appropriateness.

So we're left to wonder if the result could have been worse had Johnny Depp's name not been featured in every piece of advertising for the the film. No, we never see him for an instant, but at least he's going to draw people in - no easy challenge when you consider that the film looks a bit dark and odd right off the bat.

Over the weekend, Rango ought to be able to earn around $30.7 million, though the studio might boost that estimate up some. There's not chance it's going to approach Dragon's opening weekend, though, which is kind of tough when you consider that the DreamWorks film was also called a disappointment.




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The Adjustment Bureau

An adaptation of a short story by Philip K. Dick, The Adjustment Bureau is kind of a romance/thriller with some elements of Inception seemingly thrown in. The Matt Damon/Emily Blunt film feel pretty much right within expectations, earning $6.7 million on Friday. People seem to be generally enjoying the flick, which may translate nicely for word-of-mouth. A weekend total of $18.7 million should make Universal plenty happy.

Beastly

The Beauty and the Beast re-imagining that seems to want to capitalize on the forbidden romance with monsters genre made popular by Twilight, did okay on Friday with $3.5 million. Given that it had a smaller budget ($17 million) and that it was pushed from last summer to this date, $3.5 million for Friday is fine. Neither Vannesa Hudgens nor Alex Pettyfer is big enough to bring about a breakout, but it's not like CBS Films is good at getting that type of stuff out and in front of potential audience anyway. Give it $9.6 million for for the weekend.

Take Me Home Tonight

Topher Grace's '80s-set bawdy comedy barely makes a blip on the radar, earning $1.2 million, albeit only in 2,003 locations. Its best hope is to move on to cult status once DVD release rolls around. $3.4 million is probably a best-case scenario.

Notable Holdovers

Hall Pass drops 42% from last Friday to $4.6 million, and should wind up with a weekend total of $13 million. The King's Speech had pretty much already benefited from its Oscar nomination run, and the Best Picture win means it's going to drop very little or none from last weekend. It should bring in another $6.8 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Rango 30.7
2 The Adjustment Bureau 18.7
3 Hall Pass 13.0
4 Beastly 9.6
5 The King's Speech 6.8
6 Gnomeo and Juliet 5.8
7 Just Go With It 5.7
8 Unknown 5.4
9 I Am Number Four 4.8
10 Take Me Home Tonight 3.4

     


 
 

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