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The film also stars Matt Damon and Josh Brolin, includes a great supporting performance, and is a Western. What’s more, just like The King’s Speech, True Grit isn’t a movie that’s receiving much hatred. One of the reasons why Black Swan, for example, isn’t likely to win Best Picture is because those who love it, love it, but those who hate it, really loathe it. No one really hates The King’s Speech (not even me), and no one hates True Grit. On a preferential ballot, that is very important. True Grit is still not a guaranteed spoiler in this category, but if I have to pick one, I’m sticking with Rooster Cogburn.

Next up, Best Supporting Actress. It’s been discussed just about everywhere in the last week about how the front-runner of the category, Melissa Leo of The Fighter, got some negative heat when she bought out ads in the industry trade magazines advertising herself. Not the film, mind you. Herself. Whatever your opinion of these ads (I’m no fan, but I also don’t despise her for doing it), it’s not getting her the right amount of attention. I continue to hold steady with the following tack, though: if an Oscar voter doesn’t vote for Leo in this category, it better be because they didn’t think her performance was worthy, not because of these ads. Right now, most pundits are pointing to Helena Bonham Carter as the potential winner for her barely-there role in The King’s Speech, but watch out for Hailee Steinfeld. There is historical precedent for teenagers winning in this category, in the form of Anna Paquin and Tatum O’Neal. She could steal it.

The final category I’ll talk about today is Best Cinematography. As a reminder, the nominees here are Matthew Libatique for Black Swan, Wally Pfister for Inception, Danny Cohen for The King’s Speech, Jeff Cronenweth for The Social Network, and Roger Deakins for True Grit. Many people have assumed that Deakins is going to win, mostly as a would-be lifetime achievement award. (It is noteworthy to point out that Deakins, arguably the most prolific and finest lenser working in Hollywood right now has never won an Oscar. If you don’t know his work, look him up on IMDb, and remind yourself: he’s never won.) While Deakins deserves an Oscar, and may well pick it up for his work on True Grit, the American Society of Cinematographers didn’t give their award to him this year, but to Pfister for his work in Inception.

Does this mean Deakins will remain the latest version of the Susan Lucci of the Oscars? Deakins still has the front-runner heat, but Pfister (and, as a dark horse, Libatique) could take it away, thanks to his consistent and amazing work with director Christopher Nolan (Pfister’s worked with Nolan on all his films, except for his first, Following). I will be happy no matter who wins in this category, presuming that Cohen doesn’t win. While I’m sure he’s a nice guy, the camerawork in The King’s Speech is the wrong kind of distracting, often trying too hard to be artsy. Everyone else in the category—especially Libatique — did amazing work. I’m sticking with Deakins here, but in this category, True Grit may not be the dark horse candidate.

Next time, we’ll go over the winners, and I’ll likely make fun of something relating to the Oscar hosts, Anne Hathaway and James Franco, or the jokes they’re being forced to tell. With all luck, all we’ll be talking about is wild surprises. In all likelihood, we’ll be discussing...well, The King’s Speech, Toy Story 3, The Social Network, and a few other films. My fingers are, as always, crossed, but I don’t plan on keeping them that way for too long. We’ll be live-blogging the show at Box Office Prophets Sunday evening, so keep an eye out for that. It’ll be a billion times the snark, so you are warned, friends.

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