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Weekend Forecast for February 18-21

By Reagen Sulewski

February 18, 2011

You're...surprisingly strong for an old dude!

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In theory, this also comes in a little premade success, coming as it does from a moderately popular teen novel series written under a pseudonym by James Frey and Jobie Hughes(yes, that James Frey). Of course, being based on a novel didn't help Jumper. The film stars the latest young actor Hollywood's trying to push on us, Alex Pettyfer, as the title character, a member of a team of teens with special abilities on the run from a mysterious organization that's trying to eliminate them. As he attempts to blend in to normal society, various CGI-filled battles occur, to the enjoyment of people who like that kind of thing.

Directed by D.J. Caruso (he of Disturbia and Eagle Eye, but also the criminally underrated The Salton Sea) and co-starring Tim Olyphant and Dianne Agron (of Glee fame), the combination of sci-fi action and a vaguely romantic sideplot have this film primed for at least modest success. Reviews alone would sink it, but then this isn't a particularly discriminating audience. Lacking the star power – such as it was – of Jumper, but with a bit more of a hype machine behind it, I Am Number Four should at least approach Jumper's $24 million opening over three days and $28 million over four.

Thirdly, we have... oh no. Oh no no no no. This can't be! Unnnnggghhh! Martin Lawrence? How (arrrrghhGHgh!) could you?! Big Momma 3? Aaaahhgh!! And a step-son? RAAggggh... cinematic abomination... curse you, Tyler Perry... Aaauugh!... who's still watching these... can't... ponder this... anymore without... permanent brain damage... $12 million.




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Phew. Just made it through that one. This brings us to the holdovers, which for the most part are a group of films that could use a net. Just Go With It won the weekend for Adam Sandler by the tiniest of margins over Justin Bieber's concert film. While that order should stick this weekend, it'll be further down the box office charts, as Sandler's films of late have not shown anything resembling legs, save for Bedtime Stories, which opened at Christmas. Everything else that could be considered recent has fallen anywhere between 44 and 65 (!) percent in its second weekend. With Just Go With It receiving some fairly harsh reviews and word-of-mouth, I have to think it will land towards the bottom of that scale, or at best in the middle, dropping to about $16 million over the long weekend.

Let's do a little thought experiment with Never Say Never: how many of Justin Bieber's rabid pre-teen fans do you imagine waited on purpose for the second weekend of his film being in theaters? See my point? Of course you do. Never Say Never should fall from its $29 million opening to around $9 million this weekend.

Gnomeo and Juliet, meanwhile, actually has a chance to not be horrible in its second weekend. While it didn't receive great reviews, it's practically Toy Story compared to the other new releases from last weekend, and as the main kiddie option out there, should at least fare well for a couple of weeks. This weekend should bring it about $18 million.

The King's Speech remains the last Oscar nominee with any kind of significant weekly box office, and should cross $100 million this weekend with another $7 million performance. However, Black Swan has also just passed that same plateau, and True Grit now looks like a $175 million film. Also not to be dismissed is The Fighter, which is inching towards $90 million, though even with multiple Oscars probably can't get to $100 million.


Forecast: Weekend of February 18-21, 2010
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Unknown 3,043 New 29.9
2 I Am Number Four 3,154 New 28.6
3 Gnomeo and Juliet 3,014 +20 18.0
4 Just Go With It 3,548 0 15.8
5 Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son 2,821 New 12.7
6 Justin Bieber: Never Say Never 3,118 +13 9.1
7 The King's Speech 2,086 -177 7.3
8 The Eagle 2,296 0 5.0
9 No Strings Attached 1,966 -790 3.8
10 The Roommate 2,160 -374 3.8

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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