Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 12, 2011

I love all you dawgs!

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If temperatures are starting to rise across the country, it's because of Bieber Fever.

Justin Bieber: Never Say Never

Bieber Fever swept through North America on Friday, as the Justin Bieber documentary/biopic/concert film earned a pretty astonishing $12.2 million on Friday. This actually crushes the first day of Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour which opened to $8.6 million in February 2008. That movie had a 3.59 multiplier after having a fantastic Saturday. I don't know if Bieber will be able to duplicate that, especially seeing as Hannah Montana was originally sold as a one weekend only release. At any rate, he's already out-earned the opening weekend of the Jonas Brothers concert movie by the time you read this, as they were just a product of the hype machine. The Biebs, even though anyone over the age of 17 can't understand it, might be here for a while. Unless he starts hanging out with Charlie Sheen. I would give Justin Bieber: Never Say Never a weekend of $39 million.

Just Go With It

Adam Sandler, Jennifer Aniston and Brooklyn Decker's rack's Just Go With It opens to $9.3 million. This is a bit under what Sandler's 50 First Dates opened to ($10.5 million) on Valentine's weekend seven years ago. For Aniston it's an uptick from her last romantic comedy, last year's The Bounty Hunter ($7.6 million Friday, $20.6 million weekend) but Gerard Butler is no Adam Sandler (at least in the box office department).


Last year, Valentine's Day exploded to the tune of $56.2 million, though it had a comically huge 3.86 multiplier, with $23.4 million of that coming on Sunday, which was Valentine's Day proper. It's a Monday this year so Just Go With It won't see the big uptick on the weekend, like Valentine's Day or 50 First Dates (Saturday was Valentine's Day that year) did, and instead will probably act like it's opening over a four day weekend. That doesn't help its cause in this column, though, so look for Just Go With It to earn $26 million for the weekend.

Gnomeo and Juliet

Somehow we made it to the middle of February without an animated offering, but here it is. The nondescript Gnomeo and Juliet earned a nondescript $6 million on Friday. This'll earn a few bucks from those whose kids just need to see something, but that's about it. Somehow, that adds up to a weekend of $17.4 million.

The Eagle

The Eagle lands with $2.7 million. I have nothing more to add about this, I just wanted to make a "The Eagle has landed" joke. Call it $7.2 million and something you'll have totally forgotten about until it shows up on Netflix's Watch Instantly in a couple months.

Notable Holdovers

Last weekend's sacrificial lambs The Roommate and Sanctum, plummet 60% and 62% respectively. There's nothing else notable about them so in happier news, The King's Speech continues its march towards The Oscars (and $100 million) by falling just 22% from last weekend to $1.8 million. It's presently behind all four openers and The Roommate, but it's got an above average chance of leapfrogging a couple of those to stay in fourth for the weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Justin Bieber: Never Say Never 38.9
2 Just Go With It 26.1
3 Gnomeo and Juliet 17.4
4 The Eagle 7.2
5 The King's Speech 6.9
6 The Roommate 6.8
7 No Strings Attached 4.6
8 Sanctum 3.9
9 True Grit 3.0
10 The Green Hornet 2.9



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