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If True Grit had found its way into more of the guild awards, I’d say that this remake of a John Wayne Western had a very strong chance of being the surprise victor on Oscar night. One of the key factors you have to consider with the Best Picture voting is that it’s preferential. Among the many Oscar contenders this year, ask yourself only this question: which movie or movies is a voter more likely to not like? My Oscar ballot would not match the likely ten Best Picture nominees, because I found a few of the supposed nominees overrated (why, hello, The Kids Are All Right). True Grit, however, has gotten a lot of love, or at least a lot of like. In the same way that most voters like — but maybe do not love — The King’s Speech, they like or love True Grit. The Best Picture winner may not receive the most number-one votes, but it will receive the most votes.

But the Best Picture winner has to have the guild votes behind it. While it’s not impossible for True Grit to win Best Picture, not having the support of some important guilds is important, because it may foreshadow a lack of trophies on Oscar night. As I write this, nine of the industry guilds have announced their yearly nominees. True Grit has only received nominations from six of them (and one, the Screen Actors Guild, did not nominate the film for Best Ensemble, the equivalent of Best Picture). Two films have received nominations of some kind from all of the guilds: Black Swan and Inception. The Social Network has received almost as many, as has The King’s Speech (which would have received a Writers’ Guild nomination if the film’s screenwriter was a member). True Grit has some support, but potentially not enough.

While you often hear that the acting branch of the Academy is the most fearsome, because of how big it is, that doesn’t mean the combined below-the-line branches (meaning categories such as sound, visual effects, costumes, etc.) couldn’t be just as powerful if they all focus on one film. Now, this whole discussion could be moot if, on February 27th, everyone favors The Social Network. But a movie that you’d assume would get plenty of love, from two well-liked directors with previous Oscars who know how to make a technically excellent movie every time, may be left out in the cold. True Grit is already, by far, the Coens’ highest-grossing film and is one of the highest-grossing films of 2010, but it may walk home with only one Oscar, for its cinematographer, Roger Deakins. What’s worse? That award is the equivalent of a lifetime achievement plaque, since Deakins has never won.

By the time the Oscar nominations are announced in one week, the narrative probably won’t have changed. We’ll have one or two nominations to parse through, a few people who weren’t expected candidates. But by and large, this year’s Oscar season has been pretty boring, even if you are a fan of The Social Network. I am, but there comes a point when it gets a little tiresome to see it win every award under the sun. I don’t doubt that the film deserves its awards, but with each passing day, it wins something else and I slowly try to reengage with a process that seems to have a predestined end. With the Oscar hosts being a strange duo that may crash and burn, or just…not crash and burn, and awards that I could almost predict 100% correctly right now, the excitement is only in hoping something upsets the norm. Fingers crossed, Academy. Fingers crossed.

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