Potter vs Tangled, Post-Thanksgiving Style
By John Hamann
December 5, 2010
Will Potter make it to $300 million? Christmas can be a tough time of year to predict, but if stays on the trajectory of Goblet of Fire, it's going to be very close. Goblet took in $290 million back in 2005, and made about $45 million of that between the Monday following the post-Thanksgiving weekend and the weekend ending December 30th. If Deathly Hallows does the same, it will have about $290 million by the end of December, and should be able to crawl across the $300 million mark. That said, it could become the second highest grossing Potter (Sorcerer's Stone), if it gets ahead of the Half-Blood Prince, which took in $301 million. Overall, this is a very healthy Part 1 for Warner Bros., as Harry has brought in almost $400 million overseas – so far.
Third is a tie, and our first of the two films in this spot is Burlesque, which tries to overcome a somewhat soft $12 million take over turkey weekend. Hopes were high for a solid hold here, as the Cinemascore for the campy musical was an A-, which was supposed to prompt good word-of-mouth. This weekend, the Cher and Christina flick earned $6.1 million, and was off an actually not bad 49% - again - anything around or better than the 50% mark is considered a win. Screen Gems plunked down $55 million plus some big marketing costs for Burlesque, so this one is going to need any help it can get. The current take so far for Burlesque has reached $27 million, and it has yet to open overseas.
The other third place finisher is Unstoppable, as the runaway train flick with Denzel and Chris Pine moves from fifth last weekend to third this weekend. Now in its fourth weekend, the 20th Century Fox flick took in $6.1 million and drops a fantastic 47%, as anything below the 50% mark has to be considered a huge victory this weekend. Unstoppable has already earned three times its opening weekend, and while it won't earn back its $100 million production budget stateside, it has already pulled in over $40 million overseas, so this will end as another win for Denzel Washington. Give Unstoppable $69 million so far.
Love and Other Drugs actually holds slightly better than expected this weekend, as the Anne Hathaway/Jake Gyllenhaal flick was expected to be roadkill. After pulling in only $9.7 million last weekend, Love and Other Drugs drew $5.7 million, good for a not bad drop of 41%. Like its box office result, this one is coming off as just "blah" – a 42% fresh rating at RottenTomatoes doesn't help, or a B minus Cinemascore. The budget for this one was $30 million, so the pain won't be too intense for Fox, as Love has earned $22.6 million so far.
Finishing sixth this weekend is Megamind, the Paramount/DreamWorks animated entry, and another 3D film aimed at kids. Megamind earned $5 million after earning $12.6 million over the kid-friendly Thanksgiving weekend. The Will Ferrell/Brad Pitt voiced flick dropped an expected 60%, and now has a running total of $136.7 million, more than its $130 million production budget. Megamind is just getting started overseas, but already has a cume beyond $32 million. Next up for Paramount and DreamWorks Animation is Kung Fu Panda 2, which will surely open huge in May 2011.