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We've seen it with various acting winners over the years. Denzel Washington wins a Best Actor Oscar for the film Training Day. He's very good in the film, though also very, very over-the-top. Does he really win for Training Day? His previous nomination was for his work in The Hurricane. A year before Washington won for Training Day, notably, is Russell Crowe, who won for Gladiator. Crowe is a good actor, but I wouldn't consider his work in Gladiator nomination-worthy, let alone award-worthy. Ah, but you see, Crowe and Washington were both nominated in 1999, Crowe for The Insider and Washington for the aforementioned The Hurricane, but both lost to Kevin Spacey in American Beauty. Crowe won the next year in part because of his performance in The Insider, a cumulative effect. And so it goes. Very rarely are actors awarded for the work they’ve done right now, and even then, it smacks of opportunism. I love Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, and though I doubt the idea that he wouldn’t have been nominated if he hadn’t died…he might not have won.

So what movies should you keep an eye on this year? The King’s Speech and The Social Network are the biggest ones of all; if anyone wanted to boil down the race to a generational gap or fight, these are the two films to discuss. One features young actors, it’s directed by an auteur who skews younger than he is, and is about the Internet. The other features older actors, is set in the 1930s, and is part of a genre that skews old. Which wins? Then there are the big blockbusters, Inception and Toy Story 3. The latter is going to be pushed very hard by Walt Disney Pictures, which has never won a Best Picture Oscar and wants this year to be the year. I would love it to happen, but the bias against animation - which can be summed up as either “Animation CAN’T be better than live-action, no matter what!” or “They have their own category, why should they win Best Picture?” - will likely kill it.

Inception has a genuine chance of sneaking in; it’s got a big cast, good reviews, big box office, and is coming out on DVD and Blu-ray very soon, so people won’t be able to not see it for voting. But The Dark Knight had a big cast, good reviews, big box office, and came out on DVD and Blu-ray in December of 2008. While there were only five nominees that year, it still didn’t get the Best Picture nomination. This year, it seems more obvious that Christopher Nolan won’t be left out in the cold (the Oscar producers all but said The Dark Knight not getting the nod is the reason why there are 10 nominees now), but permit me to be pessimistic. 127 Hours and Black Swan, the one-two punch from Fox Searchlight, seem like solid contenders, though it’s yet to be seen how well mass audiences accept them.

The Kids Are All Right is the other summer release that should get a Best Picture nomination, but then again, the film’s come out on DVD and the acting is all that’s getting touted. Another Year, The Fighter, The Way Back, and a few others are all vying for the other spots, leaving only one wild card. That wild card, yet assumed nominee, is True Grit. I don’t blame anyone for assuming this to be true. True Grit is a remake, but a remake of a well-liked Western starring John Wayne. It stars Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon, and Josh Brolin. It’s being produced by Scott Rudin, a tenacious executive. Oh, and Joel and Ethan Coen directed and wrote it. How can this movie not fail, right? But it comes out on December 22nd, and as I write this, either no one has seen it or has even made a peep about seeing it.

With each day that passes, you have to wonder if True Grit may be rushed (and to clarify, I do not want that to be true), and if the tenth spot opens up to something else. Could Shutter Island or How To Train Your Dragon sneak in as a dark horse? There are still a few months left until the Oscars are telecast on ABC, and I want to be drawn back into the race, but the mental wear and tear began this year before I even wrote this column. I don’t want to go into a monklike state where I read no other coverage, but I’m not sure how much moderation is possible in this situation. For now, let’s keep our spirits high and hope that the 2010 Oscar season proves more gratifying than those of previous years.

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