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Weekend Forecast for October 8-10, 2010

By Reagen Sulewski

October 8, 2010

Surprisingly, this is not a scene from My Soul to Take.

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Horror audiences, apparently underwhelmed by both of last week's offerings, have My Soul to Take to look forward to this weekend, which is more in line with the usual “attractive young people get slaughtered” expectations. Written and directed by Wes Craven, who's experienced a late career renaissance, it's about a group of seven teens who share the same birthday, who are then stalked by a serial killer who was supposedly put to death on that date. Wait, you're asking, isn't this just Nightmare on Elm Street with a guy with a calendar fetish? To which I respond – you're capable of pattern recognition? Are you sure you're a slasher film fan?

Although it hardly matters, the film wasn't screened for critics, which is pretty much the international movie sign for “it sucks”. As such, this film's looking to make as much as it can in the first weekend and try and escape scot-free. This film seems to fit into the usual actiony-CGIy style that horror fans seem to prefer these days, and has some effective looking chills, so I'd expect a modest but unspectacular debut of around $10 million.

The “zany comedian plays straight in a drama” is a pretty standard trope these days, where your average funny man (or woman) is forced to endure the “Wow, you can act!” reviews – as if being hilariously funny in character wasn't acting. Zach Galifianakis is the latest to approach this in It's Kind of a Funny Story, though he's really only a supporting character here.

He's one of many psychiatric ward patients who patients interact with relative newcomer Keir Gilchrist, a teen who's checked himself in to deal with his clinical depression. I know, what a fantastically entertaining-sounding idea for a movie, right? A watered-down version of Cuckoo's Nest, it seems watchable more or less just for Galifianakis' performance, which is getting placed into the “tour-de-force” category by many reviewers. However, it's only opening in around 700 venues, which reflects lowered, and perhaps quite realistic, expectations by the studio. Its debut should be in the $5 million range.




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After a decent debut at $22 million, the big question surrounding The Social Network is whether it can sustain the initial enthusiasm. Reviews and word-of-mouth do seem to be universally in the direction of positivity, and any of the criticisms about the uninterestingness of the material are irrelevant in the wake of its opening weekend. I feel that this is still the buzz movie of the weekend, and show put in a showing of about $17 million.

Legend of the Guardians made the most of its second weekend and its near 3D exclusivity with a $10 million showing. Even with this, it's still destined for just $60 million or so for a final total, and it has to be viewed as a disappointment. Give it $7 million for this weekend.

The Town, meanwhile, is making a longshot run at $100 million after two straight weekends of legs. The Ben Affleck-directed crime thriller has been making a case for itself as one of the top films of the fall, and should have a fourth weekend total of about $6 million. That's about the same number that Wall Street 2 should see in its third weekend, which after a surprisingly strong debut, is turning into the punchline that we all kind of thought it was.


Forecast: Weekend of October 8-10, 2010
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Life As We Know It 3,150 New 23.7
2 Secretariat 3,072 New 21.1
3 The Social Network 2,771 0 16.8
4 My Soul to Take 2,572 New 10.5
5 Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole 3,225 -250 7.2
6 The Town 2,720 -215 6.7
7 Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps 2,829 -768 5.9
8 It's Kind of A Funny Story 742 New 4.9
9 Easy A 2,847 -127 4.7
10 You Again 2,332 -216 3.5

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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