Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

June 21, 2010

At least Lady Gaga was patriotic.

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Eric Hughes: Yeah, as we have been saying already, it seems uneven to suggest $110 million as a soft opening. If it holds, Toy Story 3 owns the tenth best weekend ever. Even so, it disappoints me that it came in behind Shrek the Third, which is the only other animated film in the top 10 and seems to be the least liked entry in that particular franchise.

I haven't seen the new Toy Story, but its score on Rotten Tomatoes suggests it's a great movie... thus my disappointment. Yet, Pixar movies tend to have awesome legs. So for Toy Story to outdo Pixar's previous weekend champ, The Incredibles, by $40 million means we could be in for something special.

Shalimar Sahota: Everyone knew it was going to make over $100 million on opening weekend. It was just a case of how high it would go from there. It would be nice to know how much of this opening total is made up of 3D screenings, though. Everyone seems to be in agreement that the film will have great legs, which I don't doubt. However, it's worth noting that the previous two films opened in November. It'll be interesting to see how well this will hold over the summer. Also a good chunk of its 3D screens will be taken away by The Last Airbender in two weeks and Despicable Me the week after that. I'm expecting Toy Story 3 to have How to Train Your Dragon legs, in that people will (and should) flock to a great movie, whether it's 3D or not.

Jason Lee: I agree with most everyone that's already spoken up. I'm amazed that Toy Story 3 couldn't take down Shrek 3's total. Don't get me wrong, $110 million is an amazing total, but we're talking about the marquee brand from the most beloved film company around. I don't want to downplay a $100 mil + opening but still . . . I definitely had my fingers crossed for more.


Jim Van Nest: I know we're all Pixar homers here, but I think some folks are getting too caught up in Toys 3 not beating Shrek 3. I don't think you can discount the different opening dates. Shrek 3 opened while school was still in, in May. Parents who wanted to take their kids would go that weekend, as they wouldn't do it during the week, since the kids still had school. Toys 3 opened in the middle of summer vacation and I know that I'll wait and take my kids on a weekday so I don't have to deal with the obnoxious opening weekend crowds.

I'll be real interested to see what Toy Story 3 does today and the rest of this week. I fully expect that by Thursday, the Toys will be closing in on Shrek the Third.

Daron Aldridge: I agree, Jim, and that is the same plan that I have planned for my family. I can’t prescribe to the Ricky Bobby “If you’re not first, you’re last,” mentality with Toy Story 3’s scenario. Yes, Toy Story 3 is also the third part in an animated series like Shrek the Third but Pixar films are a unique beast in having very good but not through the roof openings. It’s all in the legs for Pixar.

Tune out if you don’t like numbers because I am about to throw a lot of them out there: The average multiplier for the five Pixar films released in summer (Cars, Finding Nemo, Ratatouille, Up, WALL*E) is 4.23. It is unlikely that Toy Story 3 will be able to muster that type of number, which would give it an awesome $461 million gross, because of the wonky 3D screens and pricing. Replicating even the lowest summer multiplier of WALL*E’s 3.55 would still give Woody and Buzz’s latest adventure $387 million and make it Pixar’s highest grossing film. For the record and comparison, Shrek the Third only had a 2.64 multiplier. All that to say that Toy Story 3’s haul is still impressive and if it performs consistently with the studio’s track record then we are discussing the highest grossing film of the year being a "disappointment" on opening weekend.

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