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Matthew Huntley: Based on the opening weekend numbers and apathetic audience response, I predict Shrek Forever After will fall by 45% over the Memorial Day weekend's three days, and by a more moderate 38-40% over the extended four days. These are hefty declines for a family movie, but also realistic given the movie's reception so far. So I agree the sophomore weekend drop-off will be softened by the holiday but it won't be good enough to be considered a "recovery." With all this in mind, there's no way the fourth installment will top the original's gross, not with Toy Story 3 only three weeks away. The movie's only viable target now is Dragon's approximate $215 million final gross, but even that may be a stretch.

Brett Beach: Looking at the three earlier films, the original Shrek basically lost no ground from opening weekend to second weekend, the second fell 33%, and the third fell 56% (these are comparing three-day to three-day, not to the full Memorial Day weekend). I agree with Matt's prediction. The audience rating of those who saw it is A, but I don't think good word-of-mouth will help sell it to those burned by the last who don't want to shell out the big bucks. With only three more weekends until it loses most of its 3D to Toy Story 3, I think the $200 million mark will be a close call. A DreamWorks rep did put a good spin on it ("fourth best animated opening of all time", behind the second and third Shrek and The Simpsons Movie). but then, that's what they're paid to do. The remaining question is: was there any kind of rush?

Reagen Sulewski: I mean, c'mon. Those films were *good*. Memorial Day is a bit of a port in a storm but we've seen in the past that it's no defense for films that suck. I lean towards Daron's estimate of sub-$200 million - ultimately this film failed on the opening weekend because people were familiar with the franchise and were tired of it. Who out there was waiting on judgment to see it?

Jason Lee: Most everyone who still believed in this franchise probably saw it this weekend. I cast my vote with Reagen and Daron for a sub-$200 mil total. Paper-thin plots stretched to accommodate pop culture references can only get you so far.

David Mumpower: I agree with the under $200 million voting bloc. In addition, I want to throw out the possibility that with this project riddled with stink of failure, it could die even faster. The comparisons we are throwing out in terms of franchise killers universally sank after opening weekend. If not for the holiday, which is a life jacket but not the end all be all box office salvation as Reagen points out, I would be thinking a massive drop. Even with that holiday inflation, I’m only expecting around $40 million next weekend and less wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

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