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David Mumpower: My thought here is that Shrek Forever After is one of the best demonstrations of box office relativity we have ever had. Yes, the film opened to $70 million and yes, it is still a bomb. I know that some people are saying otherwise, but I disagree with the rationale that a big opening weekend number in and of itself demonstrates success. The Shrek franchise just lost over $50 million in opening weekend revenue despite having the advantage of 3-D ticket price inflation. When Batman & Robin debuted with $42.9 million, it was "only" down about $10 million from Batman Forever's $52.8 million. I think we all agree that Batman & Robin is one of the biggest franchise bombs in the history of our industry. Shrek Forever After's opening weekend puts it in line to follow this sort of behavior unless it does recover over Memorial Day weekend. The Saw analogy is also a good one and in fact a comment I had made to someone yesterday. I had never expected to see a link between the Saw and Shrek franchises yet here we are. Saw VI wound up with final box office of less than Saw V made during its opening weekend. Shrek Forever After will not match that feat, but it's going to be easily the worst performer of the Shrek titles.

Or maybe Shrek: Just Give Us Your Money, You Jerks

Kim Hollis: We have had a couple of recent films, such as Avatar and How to Train Your Dragon, that have performed spectacularly after opening weekend. Do you believe that the Memorial Day holiday will allow Shrek Forever After to recover, or will it fall short of Shrek's $267.7 million to become the worst performer in the franchise?





Daron Aldridge: Memorial Day may slow the bleeding but not stop it. David mentioned the Matrix conclusion in his Friday Analysis and I think it is the most apt comparison - not genre but in terms of quality, public demand and box office performance. Matrix Revolutions was at the mercy of a public that was turned off by its predecessor and that resulted in a $48.5 opening (off 53% from Reloaded...look a bit familiar, DreamWorks?) and a final gross of $139.3 million (or less than half of Reloaded's $281 total gross). With that math, I predict (or rather, I hope) Shrek Forever After will only finish with about $175 million...and is padding it with an extra $15 million from Memorial Day more that the true half prediction of $160 million finish (compared to $320 million for The Third). To play devil's advocate to my own prediction, the 3D pricing may not have been a huge payoff this weekend but since it will be have those theaters monopolized until Buzz and Woody show up.

Josh Spiegel: I'll be shocked if this movie has the same kind of legs that Avatar or Dragon did, really. Though Karate Kid and Toy Story 3 coming out within three weeks gives Shrek the family crowd for a little bit longer, and Memorial Day right around the corner, the demand doesn't seem to be there. Kids have either outgrown Shrek or don't care. Also, it's worth pointing out that the original Shrek may be the series' lowest performer, but it is also the film with the best legs. Shrek came out with a $42 million opening weekend and then made more than six times that opening gross. I don't see Shrek Forever After making over 250 million dollars, let alone 400 million to get those kind of legs.

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