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Yes, the SAGs have never matched up fully with the Oscars. Still, the SAGs have matched on a couple of notable surprise wins: they picked both Crash and Shakespeare in Love to win. Still, Inglourious Basterds, while one of the five Best Picture Oscar frontrunners, will likely not win the Oscar, in place of Avatar, or possibly The Hurt Locker (hey, a man can still dream). So, the SAGs, while important, are not always the best predictor of Oscar gold. The Producers Guild, despite not being as powerful at the Oscars when voting, is slightly better, having picked six of the past ten Best Picture winners at the Oscars, despite missing movies such as Million Dollar Baby and A Beautiful Mind. So, what movie struck the PGA's fancy just right this year?

Well, in a bit of a charming and happy surprise, The Hurt Locker won the big prize at the Producers Guild, getting the equivalent of the Best Picture Oscar. I say it's a surprise because the members of the PGA are more often willing to honor movies that are not only well-produced, but are financially successful, along with being critically acclaimed. In other words, I expected that Avatar would win here, as it's pretty much the most successful movie ever. The Hurt Locker, on the other hand, is not, having made under $20 million in its theatrical run. Still, this confirms that the Best Picture race is the one to watch for, if you're looking for any kind of potential suspense at the Oscar ceremony. Avatar is still the frontrunner of frontrunners, but The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds have reasserted themselves as serious contenders. Up in the Air, of course, is still very much in the mix, but its lack of big-name awards isn't promising.

As mentioned, in the past ten years, the Producers Guild has zeroed in on the Best Picture Oscar winner six times. A recent notable miss was for the year in film in 2006; the PGA honored Little Miss Sunshine, while the Oscars honored The Departed. The two years prior, they also missed; in 2005, they went with conventional wisdom and gave its top prize to Brokeback Mountain, not Crash. In 2004, they gave The Aviator the award, not Million Dollar Baby. One thing to note here is that, like the Oscars, the PGA Awards have expanded this year to ten nominations. Does this mean The Hurt Locker's chances improve drastically? Well, it's expected to get a nice amount of nods, including one for Best Picture; I still think Avatar is the film to beat, but The Hurt Locker, more than any other nominee, has the potential to surprise at the end of the night. Keep an eye out for the movie and, as I keep telling you, see it if you haven't already.

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