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But what about Inglourious Basterds and Precious? As I mentioned above, sometimes movies don't get an ACE Eddie nomination. Moreover, not getting an ACE Eddie doesn't mean the editor won't be recognized in the Oscar nods. Still, of the 13 movies nominated over the three categories, there's a solid amount of Best Picture hopefuls. Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air, District 9, and Star Trek are all getting more and more heat with the recent guild announcements. Inglourious Basterds and Precious will also find themselves in the mix, despite not showing up here. All in all, if things pan out as they've been doing in the guilds, the Academy may get its wish at a more diverse mix of films, both critically and widely acclaimed. The experiment, at least for the time being, may work in spades.

Of course, it's also interesting to consider what movies have fallen out of favor despite being seen as sure things come awards time. The three movies that make up the big names of the category are Invictus, The Lovely Bones, and Nine. The first film, a retelling of how Nelson Mandela brought South Africa together through the sport of rugby, has garnered awards attention, but only modest box office returns. Invictus, like the latter of the three films, is still likely to get a Best Picture nomination, but its momentum has died down to nearly nothing. Aside from Best Picture, Morgan Freeman will probably get nominated for Best Actor, Matt Damon may surprise as a Best Supporting Actor nominee, and perhaps Clint Eastwood as Best Director. Nominations notwithstanding, it's unlikely for Invictus to win big at the ceremony.

What threw this movie's momentum off? It's just been overshadowed by newer, more impressive fare. Don't get me wrong: Invictus could get a lot of nominations, but it's very likely not going to win anything. Even Freeman, the film's likeliest candidate for a nod, may lose to George Clooney or the star of The Hurt Locker (also on DVD this week, and you're totally going to rent it, right?), Jeremy Renner. Since Freeman's already won an Oscar, and won it for a previous collaboration with director Clint Eastwood, the Academy may not feel any kind of provocation to honor him this year. Damon's nod, if he gets it, will be ignored in place of likely winner Christoph Waltz. Invictus could have succeeded in other years, but timing is everything, and this one lost.

Timing was also everything for The Lovely Bones, as it appears that the Oscars won't be seeing this period murder mystery at its gala event. Paramount, the film's distributor, is so wise to the film meeting tepid reviews that the studio waited to expand the film past two theaters in New York City and Los Angeles, combined, until January 15th. Though the film won't exactly vanish now that it's about to be released, Paramount may put more emphasis on the technical awards for The Lovely Bones as opposed to the big categories. Frankly, Paramount will end up putting more money behind an Oscar push for Star Trek, which could very well end up with the tenth Best Picture nomination. Once again, though, Peter Jackson appears to be stymied by Oscar when he's not working with Hobbits (or when he's producing other people's movies, such as District 9, another dark-horse contender).

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