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Matching up the AFI Awards with the Oscars is a bit difficult; last year, for example, their list of ten excluded Slumdog Millionaire, but only because the film wasn't American-made. In the past eight years (that's as long as AFI has been doing the top-ten list), only one other year's list didn't have the Best Picture Oscar winner: in 2006, they didn't pick The Departed as one of their favorites. All other years, though, did have the eventual victor. This year's list, though, will not match up with the Oscars, I'd venture. Though I loved Coraline and laughed at The Hangover, the filmmakers behind these films shouldn't be getting tuxes pressed for the ceremony in March. Of the list, The Hurt Locker, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air are the likely Oscar contenders that will overlap.

So, finally, before we wait and see how many millions of dollars will be made this weekend, the same weekend in December when a certain Best Picture Oscar winner about an ill-fated ocean liner opened, how about we figure out if James Cameron will once again crown himself King of the World at the Oscars. Yes, Avatar is opening today; in fact, you may well be reading this after having seen a midnight showing, or an early showing, of the film. Much like Titanic, Cameron's last feature film, the buzz was negative until people, you know, saw the damn thing. The reviews have been mostly positive; though not all critics are agog with the science-fiction epic about a disabled man who becomes part of an alien culture that humans want to exploit, the majority have gone nuts about the special effects and the visual feast that has been offered up.

Does Avatar have a Best Picture Oscar in its sights, though? The award itself probably won't go to the movie, but if the film doesn't end up as a Best Picture nominee, it'll be very surprising. There's still a chance that the movie won't do as well as people are hoping at the box office, but the general excitement about the movie, plus the likely support from those Oscar voters who work on the technical side of filmmaking, is sure to help its chances. As I've mentioned in previous columns, despite having a stereotype of being a representation of outdated and fuddy-duddy elements of Hollywood, the Oscars have often nominated blockbusters, such as Star Wars, Jaws, and Raiders of the Lost Ark. Oh, and Titanic, which, for all the cooing about the love story, did become the highest-grossing film ever. Avatar is probably going to get a lot of nominations; just don't be surprised if none of those nods are for acting or writing, neither of which are getting lots of noise behind them. The technical nominations, a nod for Cameron as Best Director, and the Best Picture nod will, almost certainly, be the bulk of Avatar's haul.

One final note, regarding movies like Avatar and Up. I mentioned in the section regarding the Screen Actors Guild that neither of these films got nominated for any major awards, nor were their exclusions surprising. The reason for this is simple: actors and, in some ways, the members of the Academy, are still very wary of Best Picture nominees being largely computer-generated. Up, despite having three strong performances, is always going to be seen as an animated movie; sure, Ed Asner and Christopher Plummer are in this movie, but they're not really in the movie. With Avatar, a movie that is, to be sure, not receiving loads of praise for its actors, the voters may look at it and think of a video game or just another cartoon. How can the Best Picture be a cartoon? This is the kind of outdated thinking that is unfortunately still very much part of the Academy. Having said that, with the advantage of ten Best Picture nominees, both movies will hopefully make a good showing.

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