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The problem for ABC is simple: they want ratings to be as high as they were when Titanic won Best Picture; that year's ceremony garnered over 57 million viewers, the highest-rated ceremony in the past 20 years. Why is this pie-in-the-sky goal a problem? It won't happen. First of all, for the ratings to be that high, the Oscars need another Titanic. Some people, certainly, are hoping that James Cameron's latest film, the upcoming Avatar, is going to be that film, the one that makes a huge amount of money and captures the hearts and minds of almost every human being in the world. As has been said, however, many times on this very Web site, Titanic wasn't just unique when it came out in terms of awards attention, but its box office performance has not been equaled. It took over a decade for another film to come even close to the $600 million record, and will likely take even more time for another movie to cross the $500 million threshold.

AMPAS may assume, and perhaps be right, that if The Dark Knight had been nominated for Best Picture last year, the ratings would have soared. But therein lies the issue at hand: does a film's popularity equal quality? The highest-grossing film of 2009, to this point, is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. I won't bore you with a lengthy diatribe, but is this film worthy of Best Picture? No. No, no, no, no, no. Would people watch if it was nominated? Maybe. Is anyone even considering nominating it? Of course not. Just because a film is popular doesn't make it great. The Dark Knight was somewhat unique, managing to be a popcorn movie that pleased just about everyone. Films like this don't come along every year; though there have been some great popcorn movies this year, such as Star Trek, they may not all deserve a golden statuette or Best Picture nod.

There are some good reasons to have ten Best Picture nominees, but depending on the year, the list of films is going to be very weak. Unfortunately for AMPAS, it looks like 2009 is going to be one of those years. Their idea should be applauded for its chutzpah and originality; if only AMPAS had the right luck, they might have had a real hit of a show on their hands. Whether or not Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin are great hosts, whether or not popular or unpopular movies get on the Best Picture list, there's no way to know (and it's foolish to assume otherwise) that those movies will incite those who don't normally watch the Oscars to tune in.

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