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Weekend Forecast for June 26-28, 2009

By Reagen Sulewski

June 24, 2009

We always hated it when Optimus Prime broke out his vacation photos.

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Among returning films, The Hangover keeps rolling along, actually improving on its week-to-week holdover in its third frame. A drop of just 18% earned it $26 million for the weekend and moved it over the $150 million mark, making a gaudy total of $225 to $250 million or more in striking distance. Think about that for a second – the highest grossing R-rated comedy of all time could be a film starring Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms and Zack Galifaniakis. Anyone saying they saw this particular scenario coming is a liar or a madman, or both. Pencil this in for another $20 million this weekend.

This should be just ahead of last week's number one film, The Proposal. A romantic comedy starring Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds, this pairing proved to be a chocolate and peanut butter situation, as its $33 million opening blew past Bullock's previous record for a first weekend, and was significantly better than anything you'd give Reynolds solo credit for in the past. A perfectly inoffensive movie, it's not about to turn into a Hangover like sensation, but also it won't drop off the face of the Earth. I'd expect about $19 million for it, further solidifying Reynolds' leap to the big time.

Up will very temporarily take over the reins as the highest grossing film of 2009 after this weekend, passing Star Trek's approximately $245 million, as well as moving past Cars and Toy Story 2 in the Pixar hierarchy. The moving animated film has shown relatively uncommon legs for summer, and is part of the "quality trio" that also includes The Hangover and Star Trek that have surpassed expectations and their opening weekends. With another $14 million, it should get to around $250 million, and very possibly could reach $300 million by the end of its run.




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Year One's $19 million is kind of a mixed bag. It's not really a flop, but with the star power of some of the actors, Jack Black specifically, it really should have done more. It's not a bad place to start for a movie, but no one believes this is going to have any legs. Give it about $10 million for its second weekend.

Elsewhere down the ladder, The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 is about done after its second weekend, and is looking at around a $70 million final total, solid but not spectacular for Denzel, Travolta and Tony Scott. Night at the Museum 2 has turned what looked like a disaster into a respectable $156 million so far, with about $175 looking like its final total. Star Trek might hit $260 million, while Land of the Lost is going to peter out short of $60 million. And the less said about Imagine That, the better, for Eddie Murphy's sake.


Forecast: Weekend of June 26-28, 2009
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 4,000+ New 81.4
2 The Hangover N/A N/A 20.4
3 The Proposal N/A N/A 19.7
4 Up N/A N/A 14.6
5 My Sister's Keeper 2,600+ New 12.3
6 Year One N/A N/A 9.8
7 The Taking of Pelham 123 N/A N/A 6.8
8 Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian N/A N/A 5.0
9 Star Trek N/A N/A 3.3
10 Land of the Lost N/A N/A 2.5

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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