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Weekend Forecast for April 24-26, 2009

By Reagen Sulewski

April 24, 2009

I'm like totally the bad girl on Heroes and stuff. Fear me.

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The third film this week is Fighting, starring Channing Tatum as an up and coming mixed-martial-arts street brawler attempting to make his way up the ranks. With one of the more direct movie titles since Snakes on a Plane, Fighting seems on the surface to be a straight up sports/action movie, but also seems to crossover the line into genericness.

That fits the makeup of its lead, who's one of those interchangeable blocks of wood that producers keep trying to turn into stars for some reason (though Tatum has had two hits in the Step Up films, even if I give very little credit to him specifically). He'll possibly break out of his position of having been in movies for four years consistently without anyone knowing who he is this summer with GI Joe, but Fighting isn't going to be the film to do it. Look for this to do about $9 million this weekend.

The documentary Earth opened on Wednesday - Earth Day - to a resounding $4 million. While that ordinarily could indicate a gigantic weekend, that Earth Day tie-in looms large. A Disney release, it's a re-edit of the TV series Planet Earth that follows four animal families as part of their natural migration patterns. I'm sceptical that there are too many people that are eager to see this film that haven't already caught the series on TV or have bought the DVD release of it. The first in a planned yearly series of documentaries by Disney, Earth is getting a strong initial release in 1,800 or so theatres, and should have a weekend figure of about $6 million.

Returning films are led by 17 Again, Zac Efron's attempt at being a real boy and not just a Disney construct, which opened to a respectable $23.7 million last weekend, indicating that the High School Musical kid does have some marquee power after all. However, like Hannah Montana before him, his fanbase is among the most eager and fickle, and tend to front-load these films to a large degree. This is a little different than the concert film phenomenon because it's a real movie, but I still expect 17 Again to drop to about $12 million.




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State of Play debuted in second place with $14 million, a solid showing for a political thriller with two leads that have lost some of their box office mojo. Quality seems to be winning out here, and it's also done well in midweek box office, leading me to believe that it's got some legs. I see a weekend of just under $10 million in the cards.

Monsters vs. Aliens will butt past the swiftly falling Hannah Montana movie, possibly retaining fourth spot if any of the new films this week fail. It's quietly becoming the highest grossing movie of 2009 (of course not for long, but still) and is rapidly approaching the $200 million mark. Expect it to bring in about $9 million this frame.

The aforementioned Montana movie should find its way to about $6 million this weekend, but preteen audiences are clearly trying to move on to the next big weekly thing. That's not Fast & Furious, which also fell over 50% last weekend and will end up around $5 million, though we're still looking for about $150 million total for it.


Forecast: Weekend of April 24-26, 2009
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Obsessed 2,514 New 15.2
2 17 Again 3,255 0 13.3
3 The Soloist 2,024 New 11.3
4 State of Play 2,807 +4 9.8
5 Fighting 2,310 New 9.5
6 Monsters vs. Aliens 3,358 -304 9.2
7 Hannah Montana The Movie 3,231 +113 6.0
8 Earth 1,804 New 5.5
9 Fast & Furious 3,565 -109 5.2
10 Crank: High Voltage 2,223 0 3.1

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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