Two Months Out: Part Two

By BOP Staff

April 23, 2009

He loves the part when Darth Vader gets away in Empire Strikes Back.

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Josh Spiegel: Biggest movie of the summer. I wasn't a huge fan of the first Transformers, but Michael Bay's suckered me in to seeing the second one; the trailer makes this thing look bigger and better than the original from two years ago, which didn't do too shabby at the box office. Shia LaBeouf is still a pretty famous guy and all his recent car accident has done is give this movie even more press. I would be surprised if Revenge of the Fallen doesn't do as well as its predecessor (at the very least, I see this thing breaking 300 million domestic). The first film was incredibly popular and people seem pretty psyched for the follow-up. My bet is this will be the highest-grossing film of 2009.

Pete Kilmer: If it doesn't hit $90 million in its first weekend I'm going to be damn surprised. I think this is going to be the MONSTER of the summer season, especially in IMAX. Shia is coming off a couple of big movies, Megan Fox is only getting hotter and becoming a bigger and bigger star. And it's got the Transformers in it. Can't wait.

Sean Collier: Didn't see the first one, probably won't see this one...but it's going to clean up. I'd be a bit surprised at the $90 million opening that Pete mentioned, but I fully expect this one to have undying legs and make $300 million. The cast is right, the timing's right for the sequel, and the hype is dominant in a summer with few big opponents.

Max Braden: I agree with the previous comments - the money that the first Transformer made is just the floor of what Revenge of the Fallen will do.




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Jim Van Nest: How many times have we seen this one play out? First film in a series suprises in both quality and performance and the sequel goes absolutely insane. Well, like everyone else has said, we'll see it again with Rise of the Fallen. For overall box office, I think a young wizard should be in the conversation, but I expect this one to reign in Summer '09. This is easily a $100 million opener, I would think with $350 million potential. If it's even remotely as good as the first and gets some word-of-mouth, it could be even bigger.

Reagen Sulewski: What's with all the conservative estimates all of a sudden?

Les Winan: The first one was crap. This one looks like even louder crap. I'm sure everyone will go and see it but I sure won't. Jim says the first movie "suprises in both quality and performance." I'm not sure I buy that the performance was a surprise. As for any claims of quality...Jim is clearly high.

Jim Van Nest: Once again Les shows what he knows...I'm am most definitely not high. I'm really Shia LaBeouf's secret lover.

Kim Hollis: Yes, this is going to be a massive, massive success and it's obviously in the conversation for biggest hit of the summer. I do think that it's going to have to contend with Harry Potter and a couple of other movies that have potential to surprise in their scope of box office possibilities. There's no reason to believe that Revenge of the Fallen opens lower than $100 million, but it's going to need to be better than the first one if it wants to have a long-term run. A lot of people saw that one for the effects, and I'd agree that was a worthwhile endeavor, but for story, it was lacking a fair amount. The shiny might not be enough for the second segment to power through to $300 million.


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