Two Months Out: Part Two
By BOP Staff
April 23, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of Year One?
Josh Spiegel: I love Judd Apatow, I love most of his movies, I like Jack Black and Michael Cera, and having Harold Ramis direct another comedy really excites me. With all that said, I think Year One might be the first major flop of the summer. Based simply off the trailers and posters, this movie just doesn't look funny. Black has never been the biggest movie star, so he may not draw in the big crowds; Cera seems to be playing George Michael Bluth here, again, which isn't a great thing. The concept is smart, there are plenty of funny people in the movie, but there's just something about this whole thing, based solely on the marketing, that gives it an air of forgettability. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we'll be talking about this film's stellar box office performance in two months' time.
Pete Kilmer: I agree with everything Josh says, love Apatow, love that Ramis is directing, love Jack Black. Not loving that Micheal Cera is basically playing the same character role again that he's played in Juno, Superbad and Arrested Development. I know a lot of people are already comparing this to the Mel Brooks classic History of the World. The problem is, it's a very different audience for these type of films than when Brooks was in his heyday.
Max Braden: The first trailer they played for this during the Super Bowl looked completely idiotic, like a super long SNL sketch and even worse than The Love Guru. This trailer is a vast improvement but still looks like a bunch of dumb jokes thrown against the wall to see what will stick. I think audiences will go and cross their fingers hoping for something good; with Cera's fans slightly outnumbering Black's. I don't expect it to gross more than $40 million, if that.
Jim Van Nest: Honestly, I don't know what to think of this one. While there are parts of the trailer that had me laughing, for each one of those there was a "poliest of polies" that reminded me of why I don't really care for Jack Black. When looking through his box office history, unless he's playing second (or third) fiddle to more popular folks or a gigantic ape or is animated, his record is pretty mediocre. Giving this one an Apatow bump, I still don't see it doing much more than about $60 million total. It would not surprise me if this is the bomb of the summer.
Reagen Sulewski: They definitely need to make sure the guy who put together the first commercial and make sure he never gets to touch editing equipment again. That said, while I thought the extended clip from the film that debuted at the same time was a borderline genius piece of comedy, I suspect I'm going to be in a small minority of people that feel the way about the film. On the other hand, if Nacho Libre can open to almost $30 million, why can't this?
Kim Hollis: I'm pretty much going to echo what other people here have said. I'm one of Judd Apatow's biggest proponents and usually will follow him to anything he has a hand in. I very much like Jack Black, and think his Nacho Libre moments (those are bad) have been mostly overshadowed by his better work in things like School of Rock, Shallow Hal, High Fidelity and Anchorman (those are good). I dig Michael Cera but agree that his work has been one-note thus far. And Harold Ramis has directed two of my favorite movies ever in Caddyshack and Groundhog Day, and other movies that I really, really enjoy in Vacation and The Ice Harvest.
So why is it that nothing about Year One works for me? It looks awful. Awful on the level of that Cavemen comedy series that ABC tried to give a shot. Awful on the level of Caveman, the Ringo Starr movie that relied on "ca-ca" as its running gag. I'm sensing a theme, here. I'm just not sure people are ready to see their "ancestors" at their worst, and comedy based on this notion is a tough, tough sell. I think Year One is going to bomb and bomb big.
David Mumpower: A lot of you are choosing to focus on Judd Apatow for his role as a producer, but let's be honest here. His stamp of approval has reached Krusty-brand products levels of meaninglessness. Writer/director/Ghostbuster Harold Ramis should be the focus here. He's a tough one to figure. If we exclude the early days of his directorial career, taking Caddyshack and Vacation out of the equation, his post-1990 work includes a masterpiece in Groundhog Day and a $100 million winner in Analyze This. Otherwise, it's...not so good. Analyze That was a dismal successor that earned about 30% of what the original made. He made Multiplicity, a $20 million loser, he drove Al Franken off to the Senate with Stuart Saves His Family, which still hasn't earned a million to this day, and he did okay with the Bedazzled remake, a low budget $38 million performer. His last film, The Ice Harvest, was quite entertaining but it was completely ignored at the box office with a $9.0 million tally. Ramis' sense of humor lines up with my own, but it only seems line up with the public zeitgeist every eight years or so. Somehow, I don't think Year One is going to be that film, either, and I'm not just saying that because I've seen the trailer. I'm not saying this will be a bomb since I never rule out dumb comedies in the post-Paul Blart movie realm. I just don't see the appeal here, though. Mel Brooks already did this shtick in History of the World Part One. This strikes me as a bad idea that will make more money than it should.
If they don't drive over shanties in the Transformers sequel, we don't know who Michael Bay is anymore.
Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen?
Josh Spiegel: Biggest movie of the summer. I wasn't a huge fan of the first Transformers, but Michael Bay's suckered me in to seeing the second one; the trailer makes this thing look bigger and better than the original from two years ago, which didn't do too shabby at the box office. Shia LaBeouf is still a pretty famous guy and all his recent car accident has done is give this movie even more press. I would be surprised if Revenge of the Fallen doesn't do as well as its predecessor (at the very least, I see this thing breaking 300 million domestic). The first film was incredibly popular and people seem pretty psyched for the follow-up. My bet is this will be the highest-grossing film of 2009.
Pete Kilmer: If it doesn't hit $90 million in its first weekend I'm going to be damn surprised. I think this is going to be the MONSTER of the summer season, especially in IMAX. Shia is coming off a couple of big movies, Megan Fox is only getting hotter and becoming a bigger and bigger star. And it's got the Transformers in it. Can't wait.
Sean Collier: Didn't see the first one, probably won't see this one...but it's going to clean up. I'd be a bit surprised at the $90 million opening that Pete mentioned, but I fully expect this one to have undying legs and make $300 million. The cast is right, the timing's right for the sequel, and the hype is dominant in a summer with few big opponents.
Max Braden: I agree with the previous comments - the money that the first Transformer made is just the floor of what Revenge of the Fallen will do.
Jim Van Nest: How many times have we seen this one play out? First film in a series suprises in both quality and performance and the sequel goes absolutely insane. Well, like everyone else has said, we'll see it again with Rise of the Fallen. For overall box office, I think a young wizard should be in the conversation, but I expect this one to reign in Summer '09. This is easily a $100 million opener, I would think with $350 million potential. If it's even remotely as good as the first and gets some word-of-mouth, it could be even bigger.
Reagen Sulewski: What's with all the conservative estimates all of a sudden?
Les Winan: The first one was crap. This one looks like even louder crap. I'm sure everyone will go and see it but I sure won't. Jim says the first movie "suprises in both quality and performance." I'm not sure I buy that the performance was a surprise. As for any claims of quality...Jim is clearly high.
Jim Van Nest: Once again Les shows what he knows...I'm am most definitely not high. I'm really Shia LaBeouf's secret lover.
Kim Hollis: Yes, this is going to be a massive, massive success and it's obviously in the conversation for biggest hit of the summer. I do think that it's going to have to contend with Harry Potter and a couple of other movies that have potential to surprise in their scope of box office possibilities. There's no reason to believe that Revenge of the Fallen opens lower than $100 million, but it's going to need to be better than the first one if it wants to have a long-term run. A lot of people saw that one for the effects, and I'd agree that was a worthwhile endeavor, but for story, it was lacking a fair amount. The shiny might not be enough for the second segment to power through to $300 million.
David Mumpower: I guess I'm left to play the role of the cynic here. I believe that the first film was good enough to buy a much larger opening weekend for its successor. What I do not expect to happen is for Transformers: Lousy Sequel Title to maintain the interest of consumers the way that the first one did. I think this is a $120 million opener that behaves similarly to X-Men: The Last Stand in terms of post-debut decline. This concern evaporates if reviews are good, but I'm not expecting that. The novelty of the CGI Transformers is gone. Now, we're relying on story and let's be honest here. Neither the 1980s cartoon nor Michael Bay is known for that particular specialty.
And the rest...
Kim Hollis: Briefly discuss the positives and negatives of the other June releases: Imagine That, The Hangover, My Sister's Keeper, and The Proposal.
Josh Spiegel: Of the four films listed here, I think The Hangover has the potential to be the biggest sleeper hit. None of its stars are particularly huge - Bradley Cooper is recognizable but not completely bankable, Ed Helms is now best known for his a capella stylings on The Office, and Zach Galifianakis is a successful cult comedian - but the concept is gold, Todd Phillips has already made a successful raunchy comedy with 30-ish actors, and...okay, I want to know why Mike Tyson ties into the whole story. The Proposal could be a moderate success, being one of only a few romantic comedies this summer, but it all depends on how badly people want to see Sandra Bullock in one of these movies again. Imagine That, I think, will be forgotten, coming out at the same time as Up, Night at the Museum, and Land of the Lost. One family movie has to lose this battle, and I think Eddie Murphy will be that loser. I can't speak to My Sister's Keeper and its success, as I just read about it even existing this weekend. On the one hand, it'd be a poster child for sleeper status if it succeeds, but I'm not sure how high awareness is for this movie.
Sean Collier: Well, my awareness on all of these but The Hangover is at zero, so that can't be good...but maybe I'm just out of the loop. I see a long, Wedding Crashers-esque run for The Hangover if it gets good word-of-mouth, and I'm hoping that it makes a star out of Zach Galifinakis. Other than that, who knows...the answer is "someone, but not me."
Max Braden: Imagine That looks like Bedtime Stories without the big set pieces and Definitely, Maybe without the romance, both of which lead to a nice movie without the box office. The Hangover has Heather Graham, who's been the kiss of straight-to-video death, but I'd say director Todd Phillips' run with Road Trip, Old School, and Starsky & Hutch means this one will get a good marketing push. The trailer for My Sister's Keeper is a snoozer and will probably result in a $5 million opening. Of these four the one I recognized by name was The Proposal. I'm tempted to say it will open well because the material is perfect for Sandra Bullock, but the perfect material didn't translate into big numbers for Julia Roberts and Duplicity.
Jim Van Nest: I don't see any of these as significant box office players this summer. Has Sandy Bullock run her course yet? I'm thinking she has. The cuteness has worn off of her and what I always seem to be left with is a movie that should have been better. I think the only chance for a mini-box office breakout in this group is Imagine That. Taking the anomaly that was Norbit out of the picture, Eddie Murphy's only successes in the last 12-13 years have been family films. With the right push and some good ads, Imagine That could potentially find a niche. Unfortunately, it has about a two week window to cash in on that niche, because then Transformers hits and with Ice Age and Harry Potter coming in July it will be soon forgotten.
Since I'm supposed to mention all four of those, I'll say that The Hangover and My Sister's Keeper will be in and out of theaters pretty quick with little fanfare.
Kim Hollis: I'm hearing a lot of people buzzing about The Hangover, so I'll agree with most of my compatriots that it looks to have by far the best chance at breaking out. It's kind of got that Old School-Wedding Crashers thing going for it, where it will hit exactly the right audience at the right time. And since that audience is the primary movie-going demographic, that's an even bigger plus.
Imagine That has Eddie Murphy back in family mode, which can be a good thing, but I'm afraid he's turned into box office poison. My Sister's Keeper is Cameron Diaz in a drama. Blah. And Sandra Bullock is pretty well past her expiration date at this point, I'm afraid.