Two Months Out: Part One

By BOP Staff

April 22, 2009

Bill Laimbeer, is that you?

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Sean Collier: $150 million sounds about right, and $200 million isn't out of reach. Denzel reaches a broad demographic, and this feels like a big compromise choice for grown-ups this summer. I'm looking for a very thorough and attention-grabbing ad campaign en route to big things from this one.

Pete Kilmer: I think it's really going to grab the Inside Man kind of audience that Denzel brings to these kind of films. I really don't think most people under 40 have may have heard of the original movie before the marketing begins on this one, so it should be a good film for the 25+ year olds as well. I'm really curious and I'm hoping that Travolta has a knockout performance in this. When he's "on" he's fantastic, and having him and Denzel against each other can only be a good thing.

Max Braden: I think rather than Inside Man, the better indicators are Tony Scott's previous Denzel films, Deja Vu and Man on Fire, which opened to $21 million and $23 million. Neither made it to $80 million total. I just don't see Pelham taking in as much as $100 million, to say nothing of 150 or 200.

Jim Van Nest: Again, I'm with Max on this one. Though not necessarily for the same reason. For me, it's the fact that until I read this topic, I'd never heard of this film. I know I'm sometimes a little bit behind, but I should have accidentally heard of this one, if it's to make the kinds of numbers some folks here are predicting. Assuming they finally get some ads out for it, I'll go with a $25 million opening weekend at best and a pretty forgettable final take.




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Reagen Sulewski: I think you guys are all overlooking the Tony Scott connection. Denzel works really well with the Scott brothers for some reason, and leaving aside the unfortunate circumstances around Domino, Tony makes wildly commercial films. It's a little weird to me that they chose to remake this film, now, since it's not all that well remembered and is more like the kind of action thrillers that were popular in the mid '90s. I'm not too worried about the awareness level of it right now, as it's not the kind of film that needs a two month build up. A lot's going to depend on the two weeks or so before release, but I could easily see this one opening in the mid 30s.

Kim Hollis: While it's not really my cup of tea, the trailer for this movie does exactly what it needs to do, and makes me think this is in fact going to be a solid hit. Tons of action, Denzel looking all awesome, and Travolta as a villain are going to really be a draw for audiences, particularly since it looks like it solidly delivers on the action front. The marketing machine is already hard at work on this one in advance of its release and it looks like they're doing everything right.

David Mumpower: I'm very surprised by the $150+ million estimates. Denzel Washington's highest grossing film is $130.2 million and that one co-starred Russell Crowe as a secondary draw. The box office performance of Inside Man strikes me as a reasonable expectation here. That title debuted with roughly $29 million and finished up short of $90 million. I think that the solid trailer probably gets The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 over $30 million in its debut, but less wouldn't shock me. This strikes me as a $75 million earner, not the $150 million juggernaut some of you are envisioning. That's the range where Denzel's films have generally wound up with Man on Fire, John Q, and Training Day all winding up in that range with The Manchurian Candidate and Deja Vu falling about $10 million short of it. That should be your line of demarcation for whether this is a success.


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