Two Months Out: Part One
By BOP Staff
April 22, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of Land of the Lost?
Josh Spiegel: Land of the Lost has the potential to be either a flop like Bewitched was for Will Ferrell or something closer to the success of Elf. The movie seems to be targeting families with teenagers, based on the dinosaur action and gross-out humor, but no one under the age of 18 is going to be that familiar with the source material. Also, Will Ferrell hasn't had a lot of complete mainstream success with movies that weren't R-rated. I'm interested in the movie based on the Super Bowl trailer, and the idea of having Ferrell and Danny McBride riff off each other, but this could go either way, especially with Night at the Museum 2 only two weeks old by the time this is released.
Sean Collier: It's interesting that you mentioned Night at the Museum, Josh, as that's the film I would compare this to. Big but somewhat passe comedy star, fantastic setup, family-friendly; this was the formula for Night at the Museum, and it worked very, very well. Without Night at the Museum 2 stealing its thunder, I would've thought that Land of the Lost could've scored big with families, young teens, grown-ups without a taste for more raunchy comedies, even older moviegoers; as it is, I think it could go either way. I think it'll open around $35 or $40 million, and probably stretch it to about $100 million with good word-of-mouth, but fizzle out long before that if reviews are dreadful.
Pete Kilmer: This is a tough, tough call, in my opinion. I think it will be a huge hit, but it will be despite Will Ferrell. He's phoned in his last several performances so he needs this to be huge so he can still be a player. It helps that this is a super high concept kind of film (I really mean that). It's going to be a broad kind of action-kiddie film that is going to appeal to the old people who remember the show from the '70s and the kids who want to see dinosaurs.
Max Braden: This T-Rex reminds me of Brendan Fraser's Journey to the Center of the Earth, which opened at $21 million last July but managed to cross the $100 million mark. Land of the Lost looks like it could draw in the kids as well as adults, so $100 million should be no problem. I could see $40 million to open and $150 million to finish.
Jim Van Nest: Bah! Max got to this before I did and made the same comparison I was going to. Gotta be quicker. Anyway, my addition to that comparison is that I wonder if Ferrell might not take away potential box office on this one. By this, I mean that Brendan Fraser, while no huge draw or Oscar threat, doesn't really offend people. Most people can take him or leave him or they think he's a likable guy. Will Ferrell, on the other hand, is more of a "like him or hate him" kinda guy. Those that like him REALLY like him and those that don't will skip a movie just because he's in it. I wonder if the remake and family feel of this one can be strong enough to persuade people who can't stand the guy to get over it and come out to see this. I'm not so sure it can. I can see this one just crossing over the $100 million mark for the summer, but I'm thinking $35 million tops for the opening.
Reagen Sulewski: This is a weird one for me, because I'm almost completely unfamiliar with the TV series, which is apparently some kind of cultural touchstone for people. Without that connection, it looks like a too-busy children's action adventure film. I suspect Brendan Fraser is wondering how he missed out on this. Granting that there's going to be a level of nostalgia for some people (but ... not me), I think it's got a chance to be a moderate hit in the lower 100s, but I also think there's a good chance that it's the summer's first flop.
Kim Hollis: My gut is telling me this one is going to be a disaster. I'm in the camp of people who generally loves Will Ferrell, but I'm just not feeling it with Land of the Lost. It looks sort of...wrong. The early teasers and trailers have been shaky in quality. Unlike Reagen, I watched the show and it, like so many Sid and Marty Krofft shows, was an iconic presence in my youth. It was campy and goofy, with just the right amount of scary for a kid. The movie doesn't really feel like it has the same energy and exuberance.
David Mumpower: I am not expecting it to be a flop/disaster, as I fully expect Land of the Lost is going to open very well. I do, however, believe it's going to be a lot like Step Brothers in that battle lines will be drawn. While some people will love it, I think the vast majority of people are going to look at the trailer and think "never in a million years". Many of them will still go see it on opening weekend. I think this is going to be another $100 million movie for Will Ferrell, but this may be it for a while. He seems to have reached saturation level with a lot of people. This is unfortunate, because I still believe he has a lot to offer as a comedian. His HBO special was inspired. He needs to find more projects that allow for that sort of creative outlet. On a sidenote, I'm deeply surprised he was willing to do this re-make after the Bewitched fiasco.
We have a weird thing for Tony Scott. It's been awhile since we got to talk about it.
Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3?
Josh Spiegel: Depending on how much marketing we see for this one in the coming two months, this could be a surprise success. A lot of the younger audience may not recognize this is as a remake; also, having Denzel Washington in a New York-set thriller may remind some people of his 2006 film Inside Man, which was a pretty good hit for Universal. In terms of star wattage, the movie's made in the shade, even with John Travolta not being as big as he once was (or twice was, depending on how many comebacks he's had). Travolta=villain, though, can be good news for box office. I think that more people will line up to see these guys go at it. Though it probably won't break any major records, I see this one getting around $150-175 million domestic.
Sean Collier: $150 million sounds about right, and $200 million isn't out of reach. Denzel reaches a broad demographic, and this feels like a big compromise choice for grown-ups this summer. I'm looking for a very thorough and attention-grabbing ad campaign en route to big things from this one.
Pete Kilmer: I think it's really going to grab the Inside Man kind of audience that Denzel brings to these kind of films. I really don't think most people under 40 have may have heard of the original movie before the marketing begins on this one, so it should be a good film for the 25+ year olds as well. I'm really curious and I'm hoping that Travolta has a knockout performance in this. When he's "on" he's fantastic, and having him and Denzel against each other can only be a good thing.
Max Braden: I think rather than Inside Man, the better indicators are Tony Scott's previous Denzel films, Deja Vu and Man on Fire, which opened to $21 million and $23 million. Neither made it to $80 million total. I just don't see Pelham taking in as much as $100 million, to say nothing of 150 or 200.
Jim Van Nest: Again, I'm with Max on this one. Though not necessarily for the same reason. For me, it's the fact that until I read this topic, I'd never heard of this film. I know I'm sometimes a little bit behind, but I should have accidentally heard of this one, if it's to make the kinds of numbers some folks here are predicting. Assuming they finally get some ads out for it, I'll go with a $25 million opening weekend at best and a pretty forgettable final take.
Reagen Sulewski: I think you guys are all overlooking the Tony Scott connection. Denzel works really well with the Scott brothers for some reason, and leaving aside the unfortunate circumstances around Domino, Tony makes wildly commercial films. It's a little weird to me that they chose to remake this film, now, since it's not all that well remembered and is more like the kind of action thrillers that were popular in the mid '90s. I'm not too worried about the awareness level of it right now, as it's not the kind of film that needs a two month build up. A lot's going to depend on the two weeks or so before release, but I could easily see this one opening in the mid 30s.
Kim Hollis: While it's not really my cup of tea, the trailer for this movie does exactly what it needs to do, and makes me think this is in fact going to be a solid hit. Tons of action, Denzel looking all awesome, and Travolta as a villain are going to really be a draw for audiences, particularly since it looks like it solidly delivers on the action front. The marketing machine is already hard at work on this one in advance of its release and it looks like they're doing everything right.
David Mumpower: I'm very surprised by the $150+ million estimates. Denzel Washington's highest grossing film is $130.2 million and that one co-starred Russell Crowe as a secondary draw. The box office performance of Inside Man strikes me as a reasonable expectation here. That title debuted with roughly $29 million and finished up short of $90 million. I think that the solid trailer probably gets The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 over $30 million in its debut, but less wouldn't shock me. This strikes me as a $75 million earner, not the $150 million juggernaut some of you are envisioning. That's the range where Denzel's films have generally wound up with Man on Fire, John Q, and Training Day all winding up in that range with The Manchurian Candidate and Deja Vu falling about $10 million short of it. That should be your line of demarcation for whether this is a success.