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Weekend Forecast for April 17-20, 2009

By Reagen Sulewski

April 17, 2009

I'm crushing your face!

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So, this will largely live and die on its genre, which isn't always the most popular one the first time around. Things like the Manchurian Candidate remake come to mind, which despite the presence of Denzel Washington, only earned $65 million total. This looks to be more in the area of a $14 million opening weekend, perhaps buoyed some by its reviews.

Perhaps one of the more unlikely and ridiculous sequels to come along lately, Crank: High Voltage is the third of this week's new wide releases. Jason Statham and Amy Smart return for this film, which sees Statham's apparently indestructible character on the verge of death unless he can keep his body electrically charged. Meanwhile, Asian gangsters have stolen his heart.

Someone got paid money for this script.

Like the first Crank, High Voltage likely defies criticism, analysis or rational thought. The phrase "if you like this sort of thing, this is the sort of thing you'll like" applies more than ever and acts as a sort of throwing down of the gauntlet to ridiculous action movie fans. Opening at 2,223 venues, Crank: High Voltage should manage about $11 million this weekend.




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This brings us to last week's champ Hannah Montana, which won with $32 million, but will be hoping to avoid the precipitous drop of the Jonas Brothers movie. Without the 3-D issue to worry about, it shouldn't be as much of a problem, but with a directly competing movie in its core audience, and with the fickleness of tweens, a steep fall in weekend number two seems unavoidable. Look for around $14 million this weekend.

Fast & Furious dropped the inevitable 60% for its second weekend, though after its stunning opening weekend, that still made for $27 million, and $122 million in a running total to this point. All the more stunning, it actually beat Hannah Montana on Saturday and Sunday. Fast cars going boom still sell, apparently. This kind of box office is unsustainable for an action sequel, and we should see a fall off for Vin Diesel and company to around $14 million.

Monsters vs. Aliens continued its strong showing in third place last weekend by adding another $22 million to its total, shaping it up to be, if not a Shrek, at least an Ice Age in animated film parlance. Look for it to join the logjam at $13 to 14 million.

Observe and Report was the other film last weekend with Seth Rogen in it, and survived its thoroughly unlikeable characters to earn $11 million in its opening. I expect this one to have almost zero legs, as this is kind of a cult film that escaped into the mainstream world, and was designed to tick people off and unnerve them. This basically never translates into word-of-mouth. As little as $4 million could be in store here.


Forecast: Weekend of April 17-20, 2009
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 17 Again 3,255 New 21.8
2 Hannah Montana: The Movie 3,118 0 14.4
3 State of Play 2,803 New 14.2
4 Fast & Furious 3,672 +200 14.0
5 Monsters vs. Aliens 3,662 -474 13.7
6 Crank: High Voltage 2,223 New 11.2
7 Observe and Report 2,727 0 4.5
8 I Love You, Man 2,202 -441 4.3
9 Knowing 2,405 -520 4.0
10 The Haunting in Connecticut 2,255 -466 3.4

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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