One Month Out: Part One

By BOP Staff

April 15, 2009

It's probably a bad sign that everyone except Wolverine is asleep.

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Pete Kilmer:I think we're looking at an $80+ million opener for this movie. The leak has certainly brought this film into people's minds and with the added footage and special effects this could be a very strong film. Granted X3 wasn't that good, but Hugh was outstanding in it, as he has been in the series. So this should continue for Hugh. I expect it to end around $225 million or so....

David Mumpower: If we examine the three films in the franchise to date, the average performance is right at $200 million. The worst performer, the original X-Men, earned $157.3 million in 2000, a total that inflation adjusts to almost $210 million. Obviously, all of the empirical data supports the idea that this is a $200 million movie. The question is whether Wolverine on his own holds as much appeal as the entire group in composite. Wolverine has always been the break-out character for a few reasons. The claws are cool, his background is shrouded in mystery, and he is the rare superhero who kills people. Given that the movie will explore his background, there is a lot of cause for optimism, not the least of it being because Brett Ratner is not involved. While Gavin Hood, the direct of Tsotsi, is an odd choice for such a massive production, he has to be better than Ratner. My concern is that X-Men: The Last Stand lingers in people's memories for the train wreck it was, but we should still acknowledge his financial success with that title. It remains the ninth largest opening weekend to date with $102.8 million. I'm not expecting quite as gangbusters a debut here, but an X2:X-Men United-esque $85 million debut should mean it will get to $200 million domestic, even with the dramatic frontloading we have for films of this scale these days.


Now is the time when William Shatner gets very, very angry

Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of Star Trek?

Jerry Simpson: Star Trek is going to be the biggest of the Franchise, and still a disappointment. Much like Mission: Impossible 3, JJ Abrams' first film, Star Trek will be well reviewed and well liked. Somehow, that won't translate into Blockbuster status. I'd suggest that it will open and have legs, but not crack $200 million domestic.

Brandon Scott: I will say up front, box office predictions with no release data are certainly not my forte. I don't really know what to expect from Star Trek other than I have no interest, so it won't make the $10 expected from me that other summer blockbusters will. Adjust your predictions accordingly.

Joel Corcoran: This is a very, very tough call to make. It's been six-and-a-half years since the last Star Trek film (Nemesis) was released, so fanboys like me are aching for a new fix. Every Trek fan I know - including my own mother - is planning to see the movie, though not necessarily opening weekend. A lot of us fans are approaching the film with some level of trepidation. The whole reinvention aspect and a brand new cast have us a bit scared after watching the crushing disappointment that Star Wars aficionados suffered over Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace. However, there's every indication that it will be a good "Star Trek movie" with enough extended appeal into regular viewing audiences to have a solid opening, good legs, and a domestic gross of slightly over $200 million. And there's a small, outside chance that it will be a great movie on its own. If it breaks out of the "fanboys only" realm and into being popular with general audiences, I think we'll see a box office performance along the lines of Iron Man last year or Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring from a few years ago.

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