One Month Out: Part One
By BOP Staff
April 15, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Brandon Scott: This is going to do very well. $200 million or so. Even with the leaked film controversy, and Fox writer R. Friedman getting fired over his early review...his review was a very strong one, and I think that will bode well for the film. The trailers are exciting and I see high $100 to low $200 millions on the radar.
Joel Corcoran: Given the success of Iron Man and The Dark Knight from last year, I think the expectations for X-Men Origins: Wolverine are running incredibly high. The character of Wolverine may not have as many hardcore fans as Batman, but he has at least as many as Iron Man. Also, the Wolverine movie has the distinct advantage of having three solid X-Men movies behind it. Iron Man opened in early May of last year to the tune of $98.6 million and grossed $318.4 domestically. X-Men: The Last Stand opened to $102.8 million in late May 2006 with a domestic gross of $234.4 million. If X-Men Origins: Wolverine doesn't hit at least a $95 million opening and gross at least $225 million, it's going to be considered a significant disappointment.
Sean Collier: The X-Men fanbase is big, and the movies never really dipped too much in popularity. Furthermore, the Oscars just might have expanded Jackman's mainstream appeal a bit. I think it'll do quite well.
Max Braden: Even though I think most fans would agree that the third X-Men movie was the weakest of the trilogy, it opened to $123 million over the four day Memorial Day weekend three years ago. Wolverine focuses on the main draw of the movies, and Jackman looks great in the trailer. I could see this movie opening at $125 million even without the help of a holiday. A total gross of $250 or more wouldn't be a surprise.
Jim Van Nest: HUGE! Wolverine has a built in fan base from the first three films. Then throw in a REAL role for Sabretooth and the fanboys will go nuts over this one. I'm not saying it will outdo Potter or anything crazy like that, but it will crack the $200 million mark easily.
Reagen Sulewski: Wolverine is obviously the character best able to hold his own for a movie, but it almost feels like they're going with this as Mutants: The B-Team. Added with the fact that the FX look a little dodgy, I think we're going to have a bit of a step down in the opening weekend, and possibly a petty quick exit from theatres. But yes, that said, that still means $200 million without breaking much of a sweat.
Kim Hollis: I'm going to kind of fall in line with Reagen here. I agree that this feels like something more B-level than the first three X-Men films or Iron Man. I'm hearing generally positive buzz, but the TV commercials genuinely look like crap. There is nothing in them that screams out to say Wolverine is something special or even in the same ballpark as X-Men. I still think it will do gangbusters business, of course, but to say anything under $95 million would be a disappointment seems a little extreme. I'd say $80 million could be an anticipated debut, with what is likely to be quick fall-off due to the extreme fanboy nature of the film unless it's Iron Man good.
Pete Kilmer:I think we're looking at an $80+ million opener for this movie. The leak has certainly brought this film into people's minds and with the added footage and special effects this could be a very strong film. Granted X3 wasn't that good, but Hugh was outstanding in it, as he has been in the series. So this should continue for Hugh. I expect it to end around $225 million or so....
David Mumpower: If we examine the three films in the franchise to date, the average performance is right at $200 million. The worst performer, the original X-Men, earned $157.3 million in 2000, a total that inflation adjusts to almost $210 million. Obviously, all of the empirical data supports the idea that this is a $200 million movie. The question is whether Wolverine on his own holds as much appeal as the entire group in composite. Wolverine has always been the break-out character for a few reasons. The claws are cool, his background is shrouded in mystery, and he is the rare superhero who kills people. Given that the movie will explore his background, there is a lot of cause for optimism, not the least of it being because Brett Ratner is not involved. While Gavin Hood, the direct of Tsotsi, is an odd choice for such a massive production, he has to be better than Ratner. My concern is that X-Men: The Last Stand lingers in people's memories for the train wreck it was, but we should still acknowledge his financial success with that title. It remains the ninth largest opening weekend to date with $102.8 million. I'm not expecting quite as gangbusters a debut here, but an X2:X-Men United-esque $85 million debut should mean it will get to $200 million domestic, even with the dramatic frontloading we have for films of this scale these days.
Now is the time when William Shatner gets very, very angry
Kim Hollis: What are your thoughts and expectations for the box office performance of Star Trek?
Jerry Simpson: Star Trek is going to be the biggest of the Franchise, and still a disappointment. Much like Mission: Impossible 3, JJ Abrams' first film, Star Trek will be well reviewed and well liked. Somehow, that won't translate into Blockbuster status. I'd suggest that it will open and have legs, but not crack $200 million domestic.
Brandon Scott: I will say up front, box office predictions with no release data are certainly not my forte. I don't really know what to expect from Star Trek other than I have no interest, so it won't make the $10 expected from me that other summer blockbusters will. Adjust your predictions accordingly.
Joel Corcoran: This is a very, very tough call to make. It's been six-and-a-half years since the last Star Trek film (Nemesis) was released, so fanboys like me are aching for a new fix. Every Trek fan I know - including my own mother - is planning to see the movie, though not necessarily opening weekend. A lot of us fans are approaching the film with some level of trepidation. The whole reinvention aspect and a brand new cast have us a bit scared after watching the crushing disappointment that Star Wars aficionados suffered over Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace. However, there's every indication that it will be a good "Star Trek movie" with enough extended appeal into regular viewing audiences to have a solid opening, good legs, and a domestic gross of slightly over $200 million. And there's a small, outside chance that it will be a great movie on its own. If it breaks out of the "fanboys only" realm and into being popular with general audiences, I think we'll see a box office performance along the lines of Iron Man last year or Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring from a few years ago.
Tim Briody: Quantum of Solace did a reboot of sorts and that caused the biggest opening in the history of the James Bond franchise. Star Trek is about to do the same. The biggest opening weekend belongs to First Contact at $30.7 million. The highest grossing entry is Star Trek IV at $109 million (figures not adjusted for inflation). The reboot is going to blow both of those numbers completely out of the water.
Josh Spiegel: I agree with Tim; this new version of Star Trek is going to blow the old numbers and some lowered expectations out of the water. On the one hand, it's obvious that Star Trek has always been a niche property, but the many, many ads on TV and at the movies, as well as an emphasis on straight action-adventure, as opposed to a heavy sci-fi focus should help this one out. Also, it helps having characters as familiar as Kirk and Spock (even without William Shatner in the mix) as the leads. I'd say this one will get close to or jump over $200 million domestic.
Max Braden: Unlike my fellow Trek fan Joel, I should be interested in seeing this movie but I'm not. And I don't know anyone who wants to see it or hasn't said the trailers looked lousy. I expect it to have a lot of trouble reaching $150 million.
Jim Van Nest: I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that this is actually a very good film that doesn't do the box office it deserves. I don't know that the Star Trek audience is that big anymore and I think the box office will reflect it. $140-160 million sounds about right. I'll wager that the next film will be bigger.
Reagen Sulewski: I kind of compare it to Casino Royale a bit - audiences have been burned on the franchise and will need a bit of convincing. The recent campaigns look great but I would guess most people are saying "who the hell are these guys?" A lot's going to depend on the quality, but I can see it in the $180 million range.
Pete Kilmer: I'm really torn on it. I love Star Trek and have loved all the footage I've seen so far, I've been a fan of JJ Abrams' stuff for years now, and loved the comic prequel Countdown. It's the first A-Level Star Trek Movie since Star Trek: The Motion Picture (which was an A+ production) I'm totally and I mean totally geared up for it, without having seen it, I think it has a shot at finishing at $150 million, which was its budget.
I really hope it's a home run for everyone involved.
David Mumpower: The complexity in discussing Star Trek movies and their box office is that the conversation seems quite cut and dried in terms of actual dollars. Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home is the ONLY film in franchise history to earn $100 million. The shocking stat here is that only one Star Trek film has opened to $30 million. First Contact debuted to $30.7 million and, even if we adjust for inflation on this total, we're still only talking about a $50 million debut. This has never been a franchise known for massive opening weekends. Instead, Paramount has counted on a loyal fanbase to repeatedly return to the theater to keep afloat indefinitely. It's because of this that while in actual dollars, only one of the films has earned $100 million, adjusting for inflation takes eight titles over that mark and even the second biggest bomb, The Final Frontier, is at $95 million. Only Insurrection is an out and out failure with the first Star Trek movie inflation-adjusting to $236 million and The Voyage Home inflation-adjusting to $208 million. In these terms, the upside for a new film is much larger. Using 2009 ticket price adjustment, there have been ticket sales of $150 million or more for five out of the ten Star Trek titles, the two previously mentioned as $200+ million earners plus First Contact, The Wrath of Khan and The Search for Spock. So, if we aren't arbitrary about actual dollars, there is cause for optimism about the potential box office here.
The question becomes whether Insurrection and the failed Enterprise television show have left a lingering bad taste in the mouths of would-be Trekkies (if you even think about saying "we prefer Trekkers", go shove a comm badge where the sun don't shine). Does the presence of JJ Abrams and a trip back to the genesis of Captain Kirk and Spock renew interest in the same way Reagen mentioned about James Bond? I'm inclined to say yes, but it's important to note that Abrams delivered an absolutely brilliant film with Mission: Impossible 3 yet no one seemed to care. With a $47.7 million opening and $133.5 million domestically, it's generally considered a disappointment although worldwide receipts actually brought it up to $400 million worldwide and made it a winner. The other thing to keep in mind is that Star Trek is going to be subject to far reaching, potentially unreasonable expectations. Would a similar $50 million debut and $135 million domestic performance be enough to satisfy critics? I'm inclined to say no, but I expect it to do better than that. I am thinking a $75 million debut is in line with final box office in the range of $160 million, which would make it the biggest Star Trek film by $50 million in terms of actual dollars.
Kim Hollis: I think this movie looks awful. I like JJ Abrams a lot and agree that Mission: Impossible 3 was terrific. I also very much love Simon Pegg, who's playing Scotty in this reboot. Beyond that, though, I see very little reason for excitement or optimism. The trailers I've seen have left me cold and the television commercials have me noticing only how bad the acting seems to be. I'm thinking that people will be put off by the virtual unknown actors filling the roles of Shatner and Nimoy. I think this is the movie with the biggest potential to disappoint this summer.