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Weekend Forecast

By Kim Hollis

April 10, 2009

Oh, dear. It's a hoedown.

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Our second new wide release for the weekend, Observe and Report, features a guy who has been a little bit up and down with regard to feature film openings over the last 12 months. After effectively bursting onto the scene in 2007 with Knocked Up ($30.7 million opening, $148.8 million domestic finish) and Superbad ($33.1 million opening, $121.5 million domestic finish), Rogen did some voice work in a number of animated movies before The Pineapple Express hit theaters in August of 2008 ($23.2 million opening, $87.3 million finish). He followed that up in the fall with Kevin Smith's Zack and Miri Make a Porno, which followed the Smith pattern more than the Rogen pattern. It opened to $10.1 million and had a domestic total of $31.5 million. So after his hot start, fans seem to be experiencing a bit of Rogen overexposure. I love the guy (a lot), but it does seem like he has a movie out every other week, whether that's true or not.

Observe and Report does have an extra ace in the hole in the form of Anna Faris, who had a nice-sized little hit last summer in The House Bunny. That comedy opened to $14.5 million and wound up with a final domestic tally of $48.3 million. Sure, she's not seeing similar numbers to Rogen, but she certainly has her own fans. It feels like an odd weekend to open a movie like Observe and Report, and it also might look to some people like it's a copycat of Paul Blart: Mall Cop (though for my part, I'd rather watch Observe and Report any day of the week). I think the film is headed for a debut around $18 million, and Rogen should expect bigger bucks this summer with Funny People, which reunites him with Judd Apatow and has him co-starring with Adam Sandler.




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Finally, and barely worth talking about, is the third movie seeing wide release this weekend. Dragonball Evolution is a live-action adaptation of a ludicrous animated series that is itself based on a Japanese manga. After making a pretty huge impact in Japan, Dragonball made its way over to the United States and has been airing on Cartoon Network for some time now. I never understood the show, particularly, and I say that as someone who actually buys Pokemon games when they are released. The movie is notable if only because it features James Marsters, otherwise known as Spike from Buffy the Vampire Slayer and Angel, but that's just a tiny fanboy aside. There's no real reason for anyone over the age of eight to have interest in this, and I suspect that not many kids under the age of eight do, either. $5 million sounds about right for this.

For returning films, it seems likely that Fast & Furious will repeat at the number one spot, though Hannah Montana could potentially surprise. Given the massive rush factor that this movie saw, it's going to take a nosedive at the box office, likely in the range of 60% or more. I think a best case scenario is probably around $27.5 million, though a bit worse wouldn't shock me at all.


Forecast: Weekend of
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Fast & Furious 3,461 +11 27.5
2 Hannah Montana the Movie 3,118 New 22.0
3 Monsters vs. Aliens 4,136 +27 19.6
4 Observe and Report 2,727 New 18.0
5 Dragonball Evolution 2,181 New 5.0
6 Knowing 2,925 -398 4.7
7 The Haunting in Connecticut 2,721 -11 4.6
8 I Love You, Man 2,643 -186 4.4
9 Adventureland 1,876 +14 2.9
10 Duplicity 1,958 -562 2.4

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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