April 2009 Forecast
By David Mumpower
April 3, 2009
I've seen some crazy-high estimates for this film, which frankly blows my mind. It's a Fatal Attraction rip-off that has been done a million times on Showtime After Dark, and the cast isn't anything special, either. I like Idris Elba a lot, but he's not a box office draw. Judging from the $8.1 million performance of Cadillac Records, neither is Beyonce. In fact, I would cynically note that the only member of the cast who has had any box office success whatsoever is Ali Larter, although it's a huge stretch to say that the two Final Destination films and the Resident Evil sequel in which she appeared were in any way successful due to her presence. Having said that, Screen Gems is quite good at getting the most out of its movie debuts. I think Obsessed could do very well on opening weekend before vanishing from theaters.
7) Crank: High Voltage
I think I've ranted about Crank just about enough over the years since I saw it. I like Jason Statham and Amy Smart a lot. So, their love (?) scene in the movie absolutely broke my heart. It was the cheesiest thing this side of America's Next Top Model. I see no reason to expect a significantly stronger box office performance with the sequel than the original's $10.5 million debut and $27.8 million domestic tally. It may start stronger, as sequels regularly do, but it will taper off even faster, leading to a similar overall result.
The scary thing about this title is that you just know there were several top level meetings about what to name the film. Someone in the room must have spoken up with the query, "What is the most on-the-nose title we could possibly give it?" From there, the debate probably ensued about descriptions such as "Punching Faces", "Beating Bitches Down", "Hero Wins Fight, Later Penetrates Girlfriend" and the like. I think they made the right call in the end. It's important not to confuse your target audience too much with a lowest common denominator offering such as this.
9) The Soloist
Have you seen Jamie Foxx's hair in this movie? It's almost reason enough to make me want to watch this. Almost. For various non-hair related reasons, I'm still not expecting it to be another The Red Violin. The hair merely solidifies this thought process.
Twilight's first four days of DVD revenue almost matched The Dark Knight. I don't really have anything to say about Adventureland, but I thought that point alone was enough to justify its inclusion over Dragonball: Evolution, a film that was always expected to bomb in the United States but do killer business worldwide, particularly in the various Asian markets. On a semi-related note, I recently watched Twilight and it would have made my bottom ten last year if I'd seen it in time to count it in The Calvins. The disconnect between the hype on this film and its quality boggles my mind.