Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 28, 2009

There are no Neil Gaiman fans at this concert.

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Burnin' Up? Not quite.

Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience

Attempting to capitalize on their current popularity and following in the footsteps of last year's Miley Cyrus/Hannah Montana concert film, The Jonas Brothers bring their concert film (inexplicably in 3-D) to theaters to the tune of $4.8 million. This is a rather steep drop from the $8.6 million the Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour film earned last year, and it's in nearly double the amount of theaters. I see the Jonas concert film taking a similar path as that, though, with Friday being the worst day of the weekend and Saturday and Sunday to be fueled by tweens and a few unfortunate parents. The Hannah Montana movie had a weekend multiplier of 3.6 and something in that vicinity gives the Jonas Brothers movie a weekend estimate of $17.4 million, a figure that actually gets the adjective "disappointing."

Slumdog Millionaire

The Best Picture winner expands to nearly 3,000 theaters and is rewarded with a $3.1 million Friday, a 50% increase from last Friday. The film has had reliably solid weekend multipliers throughout its run in wide release and this weekend should not be an exception, either. Give it $11.9 million for the weekend.


Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li

Somehow avoiding going straight-to-DVD, Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li earned $1.6 million Friday in 1,136 theaters. I don't mind saying: if you saw this, you really need to get out more. It will somehow earn $4.3 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Last week it was Madea Goes to Jail, this week it's Madea Has a 70% Friday-to-Friday Decline at the Box Office. Tyler Perry's movies tend to suffer a bit on the second weekend (Madea's Family Reunion was off 66% on its second Friday) but this is tops among them, which is probably because it also opened highest. It'll bounce back a little bit Saturday but the weekend decline is still going to be above 60%.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience 17.4
2 Madea Goes to Jail 15.9
3 Slumdog Millionaire 11.9
4 Taken 9.4
5 He's Just Not That Into You 5.4
6 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 5.1
7 Coraline 4.6
8 Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li 4.3
9 Confessions of a Shopaholic 4.0
10 Fired Up 3.6



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