Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 14, 2009

Threesome busted!

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Friday the 13th

Conveniently opening on Friday the 13th, the latest revival of Jason Voorhees scored huge with $19.2 million. With the rest of the days this weekend (including Monday) not being Friday the 13th, I'm going out on a limb and assuming that Friday will be far and away its strongest box office day. Looking at Freddy vs. Jason from back in 2003, that opened to $36.4 million with a better than expected 2.67 weekend multiplier. Considering it's not unheard of for a film to throw well under that now and also considering the date gimmick, Friday the 13th may very well not even make a 2.67 multiplier over the long weekend. Look for Friday the 13th to win the weekend with ease with about $48 million. Chances are, the studio is going to estimate it higher, though.

Confessions of a Shopaholic

Turns out audiences don't really want to watch a movie about a girl who loves to shop while in the middle of the worst economic crisis in decades. Isla Fisher's Confessions of a Shopaholic opened to $4.3 million Friday, good for fourth place. Mrs. Borat's movie will likely see a decent bump today as it's perfect Valentine's Day fodder, but it's still going to be the second choice behind He's Just Not That Into You. A best-case scenario for Confessions of a Shopaholic looks to be $14.1 million.




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The International

The Clive Owen/Naomi Watts conspiracy thriller The International only manages $2.6 million on Friday - a disappointing figure to be sure. The International is going to be the second choice (behind the still solid Taken) of viewers not being dragged to He's Just Not That Into You or Confessions of a Shopaholic. Give it $9.1 million over four days.

Notable Holdovers

He's Just Not That Into You drops 52% from last Friday to $5 million. That's a bit alarming but it should rebound very nicely on Valentine's Day, as most men, if given a choice, would probably prefer this to Shopaholic. A four-day total of $18.3 million appears to be in the works.

Elsewhere, Coraline is off 34% from last Friday, The Pink Panther 2 falls 44% and Push drops 51%. The latter two are non factors in the lower end of the box office, but Coraline is something to watch over the remainder of the weekend. A holiday-boosted weekend of around $14 million is entirely possible.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Four-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Friday the 13th 48.0
2 He's Just Not That Into You 18.3
3 Taken 17.5
4 Confessions of a Shopaholic 14.1
5 Coraline 14.0
6 The International 9.1
7 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 8.9
8 The Pink Panther 2 7.0
9 Slumdog Millionaire 6.2
10 Push 5.7

     


 
 

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