In Contention: The Golden Globes

By Josh Spiegel

January 6, 2009

Meryl laughs at the idea of a dingo eating her baby.

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One of the most common misconceptions about the Golden Globes is that they are the best way to determine upcoming Oscar winners. When it comes to the nominating process, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who hands out the Globes, is relatively spot-on with nominees; however, if you're looking for an accurate gauge of Oscar winners, look elsewhere.

This year's nominations have been out for a few weeks, and looking at the nominees for Best Picture - separated into Drama and Musical/Comedy categories - requires a large grain of salt. The most surprising and egregious snub is Milk, the Gus Van Sant-helmed biopic starring Sean Penn and James Franco. The film's only nomination was for Penn, as Best Actor. The movie had famous actors and was a biography; what more could they ask for?

For Best Picture-Drama, the nominees are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, and Slumdog Millionaire. Of those five films, only Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire are considered locks for the Academy Awards' biggest honor; the other three films, especially Frost/Nixon, are in the hunt for Best Picture, but it's possible that all three aren't announced on January 22nd.

For Best Picture-Musical or Comedy, the Globes nominated Burn After Reading, Happy-Go-Lucky, In Bruges, Mamma Mia!, and Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Most people have rightly assumed that the Academy doesn't nominate comedies for Best Picture frequently, and this year will be no different. None of these nominees are likely to be nominated for the big prize, but again, the Academy's not known for honoring comedies more than they do for dramas. Moreover, a movie like Mamma Mia!, the most unintentionally hilarious thing on screen this year, is better served at the Razzies.

So, are the Globes accurate for predicting Best Picture Oscar winners and nominees? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. With regards to the last five years, the Golden Globes are probably the last place to look, having only gotten one Best Picture winner correct - 2003's The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. At last year's stripped-down press conference, Atonement won, whereas No Country for Old Men took the Oscar. Looking back to the past ten years, the Globes have a better accuracy rate, having predicted six of ten winners correctly. Of course, if it weren't for the second Best Picture category the Globes had, the record would be different, as Chicago and Shakespeare in Love won for musical/comedy. Those crafty journalists!




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The nominating process does lend the Globes more credence in terms of their predictions for films that end up being named for Oscars. It's worth pointing out that in 2007, 2005, and 2001, the Globes nominated more than five films for Best Picture-Drama. Things were truly ridiculous last year, when eight films were nominated for the category! Originally, they wanted to nominate every film that was released in 2007, but decided against it, I figure. Still, although the Globes aren't too far off with Oscar nominees, it's fair to point out that The Dark Knight, Doubt, and WALL-E are very much in the mix for Best Picture this year.

The Golden Globes are known just as much for the parties thrown by the Foreign Press as for the actual awards; with nominees such as Brad Pitt, Dustin Hoffman, Javier Bardem, Meryl Streep (a two-time nominee this year), and Tom Cruise (for his cameo performance in Tropic Thunder), the star wattage at this year's show will not be dim. Granted, I could name a few actors who probably deserve a nomination for Best Supporting Actor over Cruise, but the Foreign Press folks are suckers for fat suits and hip-hop music, like most of us all, right? Right?

It's well-documented in Hollywood that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, an organization best-known for the Golden Globes instead of the journalism put forth by its members, is not as respected a group as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences or even the major guilds. Unlike the Academy, made up of over 6,000 members, the Foreign Press is comprised of less than 100 people. None of this, of course, erases the fact that the Golden Globe nominees are right more often than not, but it's worth noting that these awards are not considered as important a harbinger as the SAG Awards, the AFI honorees, or the National Board of Review winners.

The two films most affected by the Globes are the previously mentioned Milk and Revolutionary Road, the former because of its snubbing and the second because of the major nominations it's received, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress. Of course, Kate Winslet getting a major nomination come the end of a year is about as common as the sun rising in the East. Still, the people behind this film have to consider that something good may come of these nominations. Most rumblings appear to still put this film as a more unlikely candidate than even WALL-E for Best Picture, as another year-end bit of Oscar bait that may have fallen by the wayside. Still, with the Golden Globes coming up on January 11th, the film to watch is the suburban character study featuring the young lovers from Titanic.


     


 
 

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