Monday Morning Quarterback Part III

BOP Staff

December 3, 2008

Owie owie ow ow ow ow ow!

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Kim Hollis: After earning $69.6 million in its first three days, Twilight grossed only $50.1 million in its next seven days. Do you think it will make it to $200 million?

Pete Kilmer: When the schools let out for the holidays, it will coast into the $200 million range.

Brandon Scott: That's a pretty steep drop, but odds are it still will make it. I would doubt that it will coast past it easily, though. With a crowded holiday season, they may have seen the majority of their dollars before dawn. My gut tells me it reaches it, though. It also says feed me pizza and beer. YESTERDAY ALREADY! Okay, I need to heed my gut's warnings now.

Scott Lumley: It's going to be tight, but I do see Twilight coasting into the $200 million range. Momentum is a powerful thing, and I imagine it is getting a lot of repeat views. Is it weird to say that it's kind of reassuring this is not turning into the next Harry Potter?

Reagen Sulewski: I'm going to differ here and say no, or if so, only just and only because of Christmas holidays. 62% is massive fall off by anyone's standards and while there may be some 13-year-olds who've already seen it eight times, they're way in the minority. People wait for DVD for that kind of stuff now. It's not a judgment of the movie per se, but simply an edification of its demographic, and just how eager they were to see this first weekend.


Shane Jenkins: I say no too. I don't think there's anyone who is waiting around deciding whether or not to see this. You've either seen it or would rather take a stake through the heart than sit through it. There's no in-between here, and it has burnt through its audience already.

David Mumpower: I'm with Reagen and Shane. We always discuss this when Thanksgiving and various other extended holidays roll around. The thing about consumers having this much free time is that if they are inclined to see a movie, they do so. There isn't anything preventing them from doing so. Twilight's numbers this weekend are reflective of the fact that its opening weekend was its box office highlight...and what a highlight it was. The way that it's died afterward indicates that almost all of its demand has been met.

Jason Lee: I agree with David, Reagan and Shane. Dropping 62% on a holiday weekend does NOT bode well for box office legs. I think this thing has come and went.

Sean Collier: Such a front-loaded, fanboy (sorry, fangirl) driven project is going to need good buzz to carry it too far past opening weekend. Since reviews were middling and word-of-mouth is spotty, I can't see Twilight making it to $200 million. If the reviews and buzz had been great - think Iron Man - it would've, easily.

Jamie Ruccio: This is the surprise of recent movie business to me. I never expected that sort of drop-off - not unless the tweener girls all did actually go see it six times already. I thought for sure this would surely coast to 40% or even 30% drop offs with the demos involved and the time frame. Unless school was still in session when it rang up this latest weekend tally I don't think it makes it. If school is out of session anytime soon (can you tell I'm not a parent yet?) I have to think it'll pick back up.

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