Monday Morning Quarterback Part III
BOP Staff
December 3, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com

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Look out below!

Kim Hollis: After earning $69.6 million in its first three days, Twilight grossed only $50.1 million in its next seven days. Do you think it will make it to $200 million?

Pete Kilmer: When the schools let out for the holidays, it will coast into the $200 million range.

Brandon Scott: That's a pretty steep drop, but odds are it still will make it. I would doubt that it will coast past it easily, though. With a crowded holiday season, they may have seen the majority of their dollars before dawn. My gut tells me it reaches it, though. It also says feed me pizza and beer. YESTERDAY ALREADY! Okay, I need to heed my gut's warnings now.

Scott Lumley: It's going to be tight, but I do see Twilight coasting into the $200 million range. Momentum is a powerful thing, and I imagine it is getting a lot of repeat views. Is it weird to say that it's kind of reassuring this is not turning into the next Harry Potter?

Reagen Sulewski: I'm going to differ here and say no, or if so, only just and only because of Christmas holidays. 62% is massive fall off by anyone's standards and while there may be some 13-year-olds who've already seen it eight times, they're way in the minority. People wait for DVD for that kind of stuff now. It's not a judgment of the movie per se, but simply an edification of its demographic, and just how eager they were to see this first weekend.

Shane Jenkins: I say no too. I don't think there's anyone who is waiting around deciding whether or not to see this. You've either seen it or would rather take a stake through the heart than sit through it. There's no in-between here, and it has burnt through its audience already.

David Mumpower: I'm with Reagen and Shane. We always discuss this when Thanksgiving and various other extended holidays roll around. The thing about consumers having this much free time is that if they are inclined to see a movie, they do so. There isn't anything preventing them from doing so. Twilight's numbers this weekend are reflective of the fact that its opening weekend was its box office highlight...and what a highlight it was. The way that it's died afterward indicates that almost all of its demand has been met.

Jason Lee: I agree with David, Reagan and Shane. Dropping 62% on a holiday weekend does NOT bode well for box office legs. I think this thing has come and went.

Sean Collier: Such a front-loaded, fanboy (sorry, fangirl) driven project is going to need good buzz to carry it too far past opening weekend. Since reviews were middling and word-of-mouth is spotty, I can't see Twilight making it to $200 million. If the reviews and buzz had been great - think Iron Man - it would've, easily.

Jamie Ruccio: This is the surprise of recent movie business to me. I never expected that sort of drop-off - not unless the tweener girls all did actually go see it six times already. I thought for sure this would surely coast to 40% or even 30% drop offs with the demos involved and the time frame. Unless school was still in session when it rang up this latest weekend tally I don't think it makes it. If school is out of session anytime soon (can you tell I'm not a parent yet?) I have to think it'll pick back up.

Seriously. Go see Bolt.

Kim Hollis: After opening to $26.2 million last weekend, Bolt increased to $26.6 million this frame and has a cumulative total of $66.8 million after ten days. Does this impact your opinion of Bolt's box office performance?

Pete Kilmer: It has a real shot at being the little movie that could. The third week will be telling for it.

Brandon Scott: I agree with Pete on this one. I was highly impressed with its results this weekend. They are far more impressive than my beloved "Bolts" who coincidentally are complete garbage and need a new head coach. What a difference a week makes. Last week we thought Bolt a big underachiever, this week...it's looking like a film with legs.

Scott Lumley: David completely nailed this last week when he pointed out that this would really hit it out of the park on the Thanksgiving weekend. I thought a minuscule drop was possible when David pointed out the Thanksgiving modifier, but this actually went up a few percentage points, something I just didn't think I'd see any time soon. The real test for this film will be next weekend when it's back to business as usual, but I'm feeling a lot more positive about Bolt than I did last weekend.

Max Braden: A cumulative gross of $67 million after two weekends would normally happen after a $40 million-plus opening for most movies, right? That's much closer to what I'd have hoped for Bolt. And if the third weekend holds up I could see Bolt crossing the $150 million line.

Shane Jenkins: I love Bolt! Go see it!

David Mumpower: A spectacular third weekend is not going to be in the cards since the week after Thanksgiving is the worst period on the box office calendar each year. Even so, Bolt has clearly established itself as a member of the winners' column now. The two previous Disney 3-D releases, Meet the Robinsons and Chicken Little, were at $51.9 million and $80.4 million after ten days, respectively. Those two titles went on to earn $97.8 million and $135.4 million. It's safe to say now that Bolt should wind up north of $100 million, and it's hard to argue with such a result for a relatively unheralded animated movie, even one that is as much of a masterpiece as this one. 2008 has been a phenomenal year for family films. Also, sidenote to the San Diego Chargers fan. "Ha ha!" Love, an Atlanta Falcons fan. I'm starting to think you guys kept the wrong running back last year.

Jason Lee: Even despite all of the glowing word-of-mouth that's been going on around this film, I was not expecting this type of hold by Bolt in its second weekend - even on a holiday weekend. Good for Disney. Hopefully they get a couple of great holds through Christmas and this thing ends up north of $110 or $120 million.

Jamie Ruccio: I'm encouraged by the number but my enthusiasm is dampened slightly by the fact that this is a Thanksgiving Weekend number. While an increase is good news it's not tremendous given when it happened. I very much liked it, am recommending it to anyone I can shoehorn a reference into a conversation with and hope it does well. "Yoink!"

Sean Collier: The challenge is going to be whether or not Bolt can keep things rolling until Christmas. If it sees decent drops and hangs around the top ten through December, I think it'll be a pure success; however, it's still running against heavy competition from Madagascar. I think it'll have a good run, but I wouldn't be surprised if a big drop next weekend is the last gasp for Bolt.

You'd better praise Milk. If not, Sean Penn will punch you.

Kim Hollis: Released in 36 venues this week, Sean Penn's latest masterful performance in Milk earned an exemplary $38,375 per location to give the film $1.9 from Wednesday-to-Sunday. Do you see further box office success upon expansion or do you feel that this is a film that plays better in metropolitan areas?

Pete Kilmer: It's most certainly a big city film. They should concentrate its release in the top 30 cities and see what happens.

Brandon Scott: I think this performs very well in South Dakota and rural Alabama. Umm, no I don't. I passed on the chance to catch this early due to a scheduling conflict but early results and reviews are strong. Although, admittedly, this is bound to be one of those touchy-feely films for critics I suspect. Let's not bad mouth this film, lest we be persecuted for our beliefs. Sweet, I managed two Seinfeld references in one MMQB. Mission accomplished. Honestly, I hope Milk doesn't go sour. All of those involved with the film deserve kudos, especially the star actors and I suspect this has some Oscar bait in it, again - based on what I have heard.

Scott Lumley: I can honestly say I have no real interest in seeing this film. It's not that I don't think Milk tells an important story, it's just that I'm surprisingly shallow and from what I hear there are very few car chases, explosions, superheros or animals performing kung fu in Milk.

All kidding aside, awhile back I noted that it seems like the easiest path to an Oscar nowadays is to play a psychopath. Unfortunately, Sean Penn seems completely incapable of doing anything the easy way and he keeps stretching himself in new ways that always end up just short of an Oscar. After seeing clips of him playing Harvey Milk and the way he has utterly immersed himself in this role, I think he may have landed himself another Golden bookend. And as always with Oscar talk, increased business follows.

It's obvious there are places this film is not going to screen well, but with that said, this is a film that got made on a $15 million budget and will probably finish with about $60 to $70 million. And I feel like I'm honestly low balling that figure.

Max Braden: I don't think it will be able to repeat Brokeback Mountain's level of success but if critics keep praising it, Milk could see some steady business. Striking while the iron is hot since California's anti-gay marriage ballot is still in the national awareness would help.

Shane Jenkins: I think Penn is a lock for Best Actor. The buzz will be such that anyone legitimately interested in current films will be compelled to check Milk out. That said, the assassination angle makes it a tough sell, and I hear the 1970s guy-on-1970s guy action is a little more in-your-face than in Brokeback. I don't see it doing as well as that film since Milk is not really a love story at heart.

David Mumpower: Arcane box office records alert: this is the biggest opening ever for a film released in the 30-40 venues range. Having gotten the wonking out of the way, I agree with the group opinion that Gus Van Zant's film is not going to have the broader appeal that Brokeback Mountain managed. It's more educational in tone, and that automatically limits the scope of its audience. Milk has moved itself squarely onto the list of end-of-year awards contenders, however, and that's always been the primary goal for the project.

Jason Lee: I agree with what's been said. This is not a cultural touchstone in the way that Brokeback Mountain was, garnering large audiences across the country. It's a great film that deserves to be seen, but I think it'll do business in the realm of what we saw from Capote than from Ang Lee's masterpiece.

Sean Collier: It'll have a long, quiet awards-driven run. It'd barely find an audience without Penn, but his presence and the buzz over his performance should pull in crowds in major markets. I wouldn't be surprised to see it expand and slowly work its way to the $15-$20 Million range leading up to the Oscars.

And boy, that Sean Penn sure is great. I wonder if, perhaps, there's been a recent column about him? If I were looking, I'd be sure to check the A-List for one...