Daily Box Office Analysis for June 17, 2008

By David Mumpower

June 18, 2008

These other poor UFC guys don't have a chance.

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At this point, we have to at least explore the possibility that a significant percentage of the people who were willing to give a Hulk movie reboot a chance have already done so. The others may not be swayed by word-of-mouth, choosing to wait for home video release instead. We'll have a good idea whether this is true or not by Sunday, but the numbers to keep in mind for tomorrow are that The Hulk fell another 14% on its first Wednesday with box office receipts of roughly $4.3 million. If The Incredible Hulk is in the $4.2 million range or lower tomorrow, there is potential trouble a-brewing.

The news for The Happening is not much different that the worrisome information above. M. Night Shyamalan's latest proof that he is woefully out of touch fell 21.7% to $2,450,829, giving it a running total of $36,099,325. If Hulk's decline of 17% is alarming, an even steeper drop is obviously...well, indicative of a movie that got a D grade from Cinemascore. That's like getting slapped down by Regis Philbin. A B- is a bad grade. A D is...well, it uncomfortably reminds me of college. Variety published a story indicating that Shyamalan had a juicy deal in place with Fox that gave him a full half of the profits on any money the movie makes theatrically beyond its negative cost. At this point, M. Night, I wouldn't plan on buying a yacht. Or even a Vespa. A couple of books on screenwriting might not be a bad idea, though.


The other interesting news in the top ten this week is that Kung Fu Panda leapfrogged Sex and the City to become the fifth most successful movie of 2008 in terms of domestic receipts. Panda currently stands at $125,599,476 while Sex and the City is at $122,671,710. Next up for the Panda is The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian. For all of that film's criticisms relative to budget, it does currently hold fourth place on the year at $132,810,122. It will probably get passed by Sex and the City in another couple of weeks as well as Hancock, The Dark Knight and several other titles. Even so, Prince Caspian might wind up in the top 15 for box office in 2008, a point that would probably win you some free drinks on bar bets.

Overall box office revenue for the top ten yesterday was at $18,447,962. This total represents depreciation of 10.4% drop from Monday's total of $ 20,586,002. In terms of actual dollars, it is almost exactly the amount of difference between the Monday and Tuesday performances of The Incredible Hulk ($1.9 million). It is a 2.8% increase from last Tuesday's total of $17,952,226 as well as a 17.9% increase from the first Tuesday of June's $15,649,178. The good news from the perspective of distributors and exhibitors is that only four films in today's top ten earned less than a million dollars. You may recall from prior summer daily box office discussions that 2006 and 2007 had some rough weeks in early June where it wasn't unusual for over half the top ten to be barely hanging on. We don't have quite so many stragglers right now, which speaks to the quality of the first half of the summer's lineup.

Daily Box Office for Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Daily Change Weekly Change Running Total
1 The Incredible Hulk Universal Pictures, Marvel Studios $4,801,850 - 20.1% N/A $66,226,305
2 Kung Fu Panda DreamWorks $4,148,769 - 0.3% N/A $125,599,476
3 The Happening Twentieth Century Fox $2,450,829 - 21.7% N/A $36,099,325
4 You Don't Mess With the Zohan Sony/Columbia $2,006,656 - 9.0% N/A $72,973,154
5 Sex and the City New Line Cinema $1,621,218 + 6.1% N/A $122,671,710
6 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Paramount $1,455,092 - 2.6% N/A $279,472,621
7 Iron Man Paramount $680,253 - 5.6% N/A $299,319,470
8 The Strangers Focus Features $565,425 - 13.2% N/A $46,503,850
9 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Walt Disney Pictures $468,046 + 7.0% N/A $132,810,122
10 What Happens in Vegas 20th Century Fox $249,824 + 1.5% N/A $76,251,156
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations

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